IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·wdi_remittance_gdp_pc_resilience_2009_2021

High-remittance economies should more often than not avoid negative average real GDP-per-capita growth across the global shock years 2009, 2020, and 2021.

SUPPORTEDengine/runs/wdi_remittance_gdp_pc_resilience_2009_2021

supported

confidence cueThis is a clear pass for the claim as written. It still applies only to this sample, period, and method.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The data clearly moved in the predicted direction. supported

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 37 country or place units from 2000 to 2023, using a descriptive design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Remittances pct income
What we checked
  • Real income pc growth
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/wdi_remittance_gdp_pc_resilience_2009_2021
1007550250200020122023ALBARMBIHBMUCOMCPVDOM
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show real_gdp_pc_growth across 37 sampled countries over 2000–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for wdi_remittance_gdp_pc_resilience_2009_2021. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/wdi_remittance_gdp_pc_resilience_2009_2021/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

1 school list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Structuralist / Developmentalistwins if SUPPORTEDschool supported

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 3fc4c7e · 2026-05-02T17:38:10Z

High-remittance economies should more often than not avoid negative average real GDP-per-capita growth across the global shock years 2009, 2020, and 2021.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if n>=25, at least 50% of high-remittance economies have non-negative average GDP-per-capita growth in shock years, and the median is >=0%. REFUTED if fewer than 40% pass or the median is below -2%. Otherwise PARTIAL.

formal test & threshold
test:      wdi_remittance_gdp_pc_resilience_2009_2021
threshold: n >= 25 AND pass_rate >= 0.50 AND median_avg_gdp_pc_growth_shock_years >= 0

Method

Template
descriptive
Clustering
none
Sample
37 countries · 2000 – 2023
Evidence type
descriptive

Custom endpoint/mean panel replication using local WDI/OWID vintages and fixed country-selection thresholds.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
real_gdp_pc_growth
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZGtier 2
mean across 2009, 2020, 2021
remittances_pct_gdp
treatment
world_bank_wdi:BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZStier 2
country selected if 2000-2023 mean >= 8% of GDP

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card - wdi_remittance_gdp_pc_resilience_2009_2021

Verdict: supported - 19 of 37 countries passed (51.4%); median avg_gdp_pc_growth_shock_years = 0.34

Predeclared Threshold

SUPPORTED if n>=25, at least 50% of high-remittance economies have non-negative average GDP-per-capita growth in shock years, and the median is >=0%. REFUTED if fewer than 40% pass or the median is below -2%. Otherwise PARTIAL.

Threshold expression: n >= 25 AND pass_rate >= 0.50 AND median_avg_gdp_pc_growth_shock_years >= 0

Metrics

  • n_countries: 37
  • countries_passing: 19
  • pass_rate: 0.5135135135135135
  • median_avg_gdp_pc_growth_shock_years: 0.34033276811535984

Country Panel

| country_iso3 | country_name | avg_remittances_pct_gdp | avg_gdp_pc_growth_shock_years | pass | |---|---|---|---|---| | ALB | Albania | 12.42 | 4.08 | yes | | ARM | Armenia | 14.44 | -4.97 | no | | BIH | Bosnia and Herzegovina | 14.39 | 2.08 | yes | | BMU | Bermuda | 20.73 | -3.02 | no | | COM | Comoros | 13.05 | -0.31 | no | | CPV | Cabo Verde | 11.36 | -5.57 | no | | DOM | Dominican Republic | 8.25 | 1.23 | yes | | GEO | Georgia | 9.95 | 0.64 | yes | | GMB | Gambia, The | 11.33 | 1.55 | yes | | GTM | Guatemala | 11.45 | 0.61 | yes | | GUY | Guyana | 8.93 | 22.12 | yes | | HND | Honduras | 17.80 | -1.46 | no | | HTI | Haiti | 14.51 | -1.09 | no | | JAM | Jamaica | 15.74 | -2.61 | no | | JOR | Jordan | 15.09 | 0.57 | yes | | KGZ | Kyrgyz Republic | 21.38 | -1.30 | no | | KIR | Kiribati | 8.43 | 0.60 | yes | | LBN | Lebanon | 20.14 | -6.21 | no | | LBR | Liberia | 13.28 | -0.05 | no | | LSO | Lesotho | 29.84 | -3.37 | no | | MDA | Moldova | 21.52 | 0.84 | yes | | MHL | Marshall Islands | 15.30 | 3.11 | yes | | MNE | Montenegro | 10.74 | -2.61 | no | | NIC | Nicaragua | 11.01 | 0.34 | yes | | NPL | Nepal | 19.56 | 0.88 | yes | | PHL | Philippines | 10.27 | -2.05 | no | | PSE | West Bank and Gaza | 14.11 | -1.12 | no | | PYF | French Polynesia | 10.69 | -4.03 | no | | SEN | Senegal | 8.65 | 0.98 | yes | | SLV | El Salvador | 19.78 | 0.35 | yes | | TJK | Tajikistan | 31.40 | 3.62 | yes | | TON | Tonga | 30.29 | -1.42 | no | | TUV | Tuvalu | 13.37 | -2.08 | no | | UZB | Uzbekistan | 9.74 | 3.99 | yes | | WSM | Samoa | 18.51 | -3.74 | no | | XKX | Kosovo | 17.06 | 3.66 | yes | | ZWE | Zimbabwe | 8.64 | 2.99 | yes |

Interpretation

This is a descriptive structural-screen verdict using local WDI/OWID vintages. It grades the predeclared pattern, not a causal effect of a single policy lever.

Steelman

See hypotheses/steelman/wdi_remittance_gdp_pc_resilience_2009_2021.md.

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.