IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·wdi_tertiary_attainment_services_shift_2000_2023

Countries with large tertiary-attainment gains from 2000 to 2023 should usually show a visible shift of employment toward services.

SUPPORTEDengine/runs/wdi_tertiary_attainment_services_shift_2000_2023

supported

confidence cueThis is a clear pass for the claim as written. It still applies only to this sample, period, and method.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The data clearly moved in the predicted direction. supported

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 22 country or place units from 2000 to 2023, using a descriptive design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Tertiary attainment gain
What we checked
  • Services employment share
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/wdi_tertiary_attainment_services_shift_2000_2023
1007550250200020122023ALBAUSBOLCANCRICZEIRL
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show services_employment_share across 22 sampled countries over 2000–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for wdi_tertiary_attainment_services_shift_2000_2023. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/wdi_tertiary_attainment_services_shift_2000_2023/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

1 school list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Structuralist / Developmentalistwins if SUPPORTEDschool supported

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z

Countries with large tertiary-attainment gains from 2000 to 2023 should usually show a visible shift of employment toward services.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if n>=15, at least 70% of large-tertiary-gain countries increase services employment share by >=5pp, and the median gain is >=7pp. REFUTED if fewer than 50% pass or the median gain is <2pp. Otherwise PARTIAL.

formal test & threshold
test:      wdi_tertiary_attainment_services_shift_2000_2023
threshold: n >= 15 AND pass_rate >= 0.70 AND median_services_employment_gain_pp >= 7

Method

Template
descriptive
Clustering
none
Sample
22 countries · 2000 – 2023
Evidence type
descriptive

Custom endpoint/mean panel replication using local WDI/OWID vintages and fixed country-selection thresholds.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
services_employment_share
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SL.SRV.EMPL.ZStier 2
endpoint percentage-point change
tertiary_attainment_gain
treatment
world_bank_wdi:SE.TER.CUAT.BA.ZStier 2
country selected if endpoint gain >= 10pp

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card - wdi_tertiary_attainment_services_shift_2000_2023

Verdict: supported - 20 of 22 countries passed (90.9%); median services_employment_gain_pp = 9.59

Predeclared Threshold

SUPPORTED if n>=15, at least 70% of large-tertiary-gain countries increase services employment share by >=5pp, and the median gain is >=7pp. REFUTED if fewer than 50% pass or the median gain is <2pp. Otherwise PARTIAL.

Threshold expression: n >= 15 AND pass_rate >= 0.70 AND median_services_employment_gain_pp >= 7

Metrics

  • n_countries: 22
  • countries_passing: 20
  • pass_rate: 0.9090909090909091
  • median_services_employment_gain_pp: 9.5921079341942

Country Panel

| country_iso3 | country_name | tertiary_attainment_gain_pp | services_employment_gain_pp | pass | |---|---|---|---|---| | ALB | Albania | 10.08 | 8.98 | yes | | AUS | Australia | 15.86 | 5.67 | yes | | BOL | Bolivia | 12.10 | 13.41 | yes | | CAN | Canada | 15.14 | 5.32 | yes | | CRI | Costa Rica | 11.16 | 5.53 | yes | | CZE | Czechia | 21.11 | 7.59 | yes | | IRL | Ireland | 11.09 | 14.50 | yes | | IRN | Iran, Islamic Rep. | 11.83 | 8.10 | yes | | KOR | Korea, Rep. | 13.65 | 10.20 | yes | | LTU | Lithuania | 14.92 | 15.15 | yes | | MKD | North Macedonia | 11.40 | 18.57 | yes | | MLT | Malta | 13.22 | 15.71 | yes | | MNG | Mongolia | 18.93 | 17.25 | yes | | MUS | Mauritius | 10.99 | 21.64 | yes | | PRT | Portugal | 16.22 | 14.10 | yes | | PSE | West Bank and Gaza | 14.53 | 3.45 | no | | SAU | Saudi Arabia | 15.96 | 6.11 | yes | | SGP | Singapore | 18.67 | 13.55 | yes | | SRB | Serbia | 10.80 | 12.44 | yes | | SWE | Sweden | 12.84 | 8.23 | yes | | USA | United States | 12.73 | 4.16 | no | | VEN | Venezuela, RB | 10.87 | 7.42 | yes |

Interpretation

This is a descriptive structural-screen verdict using local WDI/OWID vintages. It grades the predeclared pattern, not a causal effect of a single policy lever.

Steelman

See hypotheses/steelman/wdi_tertiary_attainment_services_shift_2000_2023.md.

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.