IESET.
Hypotheses·welfare architecture·welfare_pension_singapore_cpf_2013_2024_reforms

Singapore's CPF reform sequence 2013-2024 — MediShield Life 2015, CPF Life 2013-2024 evolution, Silver Support Scheme 2016, Workfare Income Supplement increases, Lease Buyback Scheme expansion, Retirement Sum increases — preserved the CPF forced-saving architecture's macro-savings rate while materially reducing elderly-poverty rate from 41% (2014 OECD harmonised) to under 20% by 2024 through targeted top-up mechanisms, demonstrating that CPF-style architecture is upgradeable on adequacy without abandoning the forced-saving foundation.

PARTIALengine/runs/welfare_pension_singapore_cpf_2013_2024_reforms

PARTIAL — shape=pre_post, sign matches but magnitude below threshold; |Δ_log|=0.0399; threshold 41.0%, observed 4.0%

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. shape=pre_post, sign matches but magnitude below threshold; |Δ_log|=0.0399; threshold 41.0%, observed 4.0%

why it matters

This matters because welfare architecture claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 1 country or place units from 2010 to 2024, using a descriptive design, with fixed effects for year.

what was measured
What we checked
  • Elderly poverty rate
  • Gross savings share income
  • Pension replacement rate median
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/welfare_pension_singapore_cpf_2013_2024_reforms
1007550250201020172024SGP
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show elderly_poverty_rate across 1 sampled countries over 2010–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for welfare_pension_singapore_cpf_2013_2024_reforms. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/welfare_pension_singapore_cpf_2013_2024_reforms/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-04-30T10:19:15Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Singapore's CPF reform sequence 2013-2024 — MediShield Life 2015, CPF Life 2013-2024 evolution, Silver Support Scheme 2016, Workfare Income Supplement increases, Lease Buyback Scheme expansion, Retirement Sum increases — preserved the CPF forced-saving architecture's macro-savings rate while materially reducing elderly-poverty rate from 41% (2014 OECD harmonised) to under 20% by 2024 through targeted top-up mechanisms, demonstrating that CPF-style architecture is upgradeable on adequacy without abandoning the forced-saving foundation.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Refuted if SGP elderly-poverty rate fails to fall by at least 15pp 2014-2024, OR if gross-savings share of GDP falls below 30% (i.e., the forced-saving architecture is meaningfully eroded), OR if median replacement rate fails to rise by at least 5pp.

formal test & threshold
test:      descriptive_dual_outcome_elderly_poverty_savings_2014_2024
threshold: delta_elderly_poverty <= -15pp AND savings_2024 >= 30pct AND delta_replacement_rate >= +5pp

Method

Template
descriptive
Fixed effects
year
Clustering
country
Sample
1 countries · 2010 – 2024
Evidence type
descriptive

Descriptive time-series for SGP with structural-break tests at 2013, 2015, 2016, and 2020 reform inflection points. Compare elderly-poverty trajectory against the OECD-harmonised 2014 baseline.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
elderly_poverty_rate
outcome
oecd:DSD_IDDtier 2
level_pct
gross_savings_share_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GNS.ICTR.ZStier 2
level
pension_replacement_rate_median
outcome
oecd:DSD_PENSIONStier 2
level_pct
gdp_per_capita_real
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
dependency_ratio
control
world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.DPND.OLtier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — welfare_pension_singapore_cpf_2013_2024_reforms

Verdict: PARTIAL — shape=pre_post, sign matches but magnitude below threshold; |Δ_log|=0.0399; threshold 41.0%, observed 4.0%

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Singapore's CPF reform sequence 2013-2024 — MediShield Life 2015, CPF Life 2013-2024 evolution, Silver Support Scheme 2016, Workfare Income Supplement increases, Lease Buyback Scheme expansion, Retirement Sum increases — preserved the CPF forced-saving architecture's macro-savings rate while materially reducing elderly-poverty rate from 41% (2014 OECD harmonised) to under 20% by 2024 through targeted top-up mechanisms, demonstrating that CPF-style architecture is upgradeable on adequacy without abandoning the forced-saving foundation.
  • Falsification rule: Refuted if SGP elderly-poverty rate fails to fall by at least 15pp 2014-2024, OR if gross-savings share of GDP falls below 30% (i.e., the forced-saving architecture is meaningfully eroded), OR if median replacement rate fails to rise by at least 5pp.
  • Falsification test: descriptive_dual_outcome_elderly_poverty_savings_2014_2024

Comparison

  • shape: pre_post
  • country: SGP
  • cut_year: 2013
  • pre_mean: 41.292255984972115
  • post_mean: 42.973429785550216
  • delta: 1.681173800578101
  • log_delta: 0.03990703677501628
  • n_pre: 41
  • n_post: 12

Extracted threshold: {'percent': 41.0}

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GNS.ICTR.ZS → gross_savings_share_gdp (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=7720)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → gdp_per_capita_real (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=14131)

Variables missing data

  • oecd:DSD_IDD@DF_IDD (outcome, name=elderly_poverty_rate)
  • oecd:DSD_PENSIONS@DF_PENSIONS_REPL_RATE (outcome, name=pension_replacement_rate_median)
  • world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.DPND.OL (controls, name=dependency_ratio)

Generated by scripts/run_descriptive.py at 2026-04-30T10:19:15+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.