IESET.
Hypotheses·welfare architecture·welfare_transfer_us_eitc_cumulative_1975_2020

Cumulative US EITC expansions 1975-2020 (1975 introduction, 1986 TRA expansion, 1990/1993 OBRA expansions, 2009 ARRA expansion, 2017 TCJA marginal changes) produced a long-run reduction in single-mother poverty rate of at least 6 percentage points and an increase in single-mother labour- force participation of at least 4 percentage points relative to a counterfactual without the cumulative expansions, identified off state-EITC-supplement variation in panel-FE design and the major-expansion event-windows.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/welfare_transfer_us_eitc_cumulative_1975_2020

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — treatment 'federal_eitc_intensity' has no cross-country variation within years under year fixed effects

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether federal eitc intensity is actually linked to better or worse single mother poverty rate from 1970 to 2020.

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. treatment 'federal_eitc_intensity' has no cross-country variation within years under year fixed effects

why it matters

This matters because welfare architecture claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 1 country or place units from 1970 to 2020, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for state and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Federal eitc intensity
  • State eitc supplement indicator
What we checked
  • Single mother poverty rate
  • Single mother labour force participation
  • Inequality coefficient
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/welfare_transfer_us_eitc_cumulative_1975_2020
1007550250197019952020USA
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show single_mother_poverty_rate across 1 sampled countries over 1970–2020.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for welfare_transfer_us_eitc_cumulative_1975_2020. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/welfare_transfer_us_eitc_cumulative_1975_2020/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 098ce96 · 2026-04-30T12:57:33Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:55:06Z

Cumulative US EITC expansions 1975-2020 (1975 introduction, 1986 TRA expansion, 1990/1993 OBRA expansions, 2009 ARRA expansion, 2017 TCJA marginal changes) produced a long-run reduction in single-mother poverty rate of at least 6 percentage points and an increase in single-mother labour- force participation of at least 4 percentage points relative to a counterfactual without the cumulative expansions, identified off state-EITC-supplement variation in panel-FE design and the major-expansion event-windows.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Refuted if the cumulative ATT on single-mother poverty rate over 1975-2020 is below minus-6pp, OR if cumulative ATT on single-mother LFP is below +4pp, OR if state-EITC-supplement coefficient is non-negative on LFP.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_cumulative_45yr_eitc_single_mother_outcomes
threshold: cumulative_poverty_att <= -6pp AND cumulative_lfp_att >= +4pp AND state_supplement_lfp_coef > 0

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
state, year
Clustering
state
Sample
1 countries · 1970 – 2020
Evidence type
causal

Panel FE on US states 1970-2020 with federal-EITC-intensity time-series and state-EITC-supplement indicators. Cumulative effect identified as the integral of marginal-credit changes against single- mother outcomes.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
single_mother_poverty_rate
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SI.POV.DDAYtier 2
level_pct
single_mother_labour_force_participation
outcome
bls:LNS11300000tier 1
level_pct
gini_coefficient
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SI.POV.GINItier 2
level
federal_eitc_intensity
treatment
fred:STTMINWGCAtier 1
log
state_eitc_supplement_indicator
treatment
fred:STTMINWGCAtier 1
indicator
state_minimum_wage
control
fred:STTMINWGCAtier 1
level
state_unemployment_rate
control
fred:UNRATEtier 1
level
gdp_per_capita_real
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — welfare_transfer_us_eitc_cumulative_1975_2020

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — treatment 'federal_eitc_intensity' has no cross-country variation within years under year fixed effects

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Cumulative US EITC expansions 1975-2020 (1975 introduction, 1986 TRA expansion, 1990/1993 OBRA expansions, 2009 ARRA expansion, 2017 TCJA marginal changes) produced a long-run reduction in single-mother poverty rate of at least 6 percentage points and an increase in single-mother labour- force participation of at least 4 percentage points relative to a counterfactual without the cumulative expansions, identified off state-EITC-supplement variation in panel-FE design and the major-expansion event-windows.
  • Falsification rule: Refuted if the cumulative ATT on single-mother poverty rate over 1975-2020 is below minus-6pp, OR if cumulative ATT on single-mother LFP is below +4pp, OR if state-EITC-supplement coefficient is non-negative on LFP.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_cumulative_45yr_eitc_single_mother_outcomes

Estimate

  • Error: treatment 'federal_eitc_intensity' has no cross-country variation within years under year fixed effects

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:SI.POV.DDAY → single_mother_poverty_rate (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=2862)
  • bls:LNS11300000 → single_mother_labour_force_participation (outcome, publisher=bls, n=3)
  • world_bank_wdi:SI.POV.GINI → gini_coefficient (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=2430)
  • fred:STTMINWGCA → federal_eitc_intensity (treatment, publisher=fred, n=59)
  • fred:STTMINWGCA → state_eitc_supplement_indicator (treatment, publisher=fred, n=59)
  • fred:STTMINWGCA → state_minimum_wage (controls, publisher=fred, n=59)
  • fred:UNRATE → state_unemployment_rate (controls, publisher=fred, n=79)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → gdp_per_capita_real (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:55:06+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.