IESET.
Movements·argentina_macri_cambiemos_2015_2019

Macri Cambiemos market-liberal gradualism (Argentina)

ARG·2015 – 2019·Cambiemos (PRO + UCR + Coalición Cívica)
Leaders: Mauricio Macri (President) · Alfonso Prat-Gay (Economy 2015-16) · Nicolás Dujovne (Treasury 2017-19) · Federico Sturzenegger (BCRA 2015-18) · Luis Caputo (BCRA 2018) · Guido Sandleris (BCRA 2018-19)
positionschicago_monetarismaustrianpost_keynesian

Doctrine — stated goals and content

Cambiemos pursued a market-liberal "gradualismo" programme: immediate December 2015 lifting of the cepo currency controls and peso unification (~40% devaluation), holdout-creditor settlement in Apr 2016 returning Argentina to international capital markets, phased "sincere-pricing" tariff hikes on utilities and transport to cut subsidies, attempted inflation-targeting regime at BCRA, capital- account liberalisation, restoration of credible INDEC statistics, gradual rather than shock fiscal consolidation. The gradualism relied on external financing which broke in the 2018 emerging-market sudden stop: peso collapsed, Macri secured the then-largest IMF Stand-By Arrangement at USD 50bn (Jun 2018) expanded to USD 57bn (Sep 2018), economy fell into deep recession, inflation re-accelerated to 54% (2019). Macri won the 2015 runoff 51.34% vs Scioli but lost the Aug 2019 PASO primary by ~15 points, triggering a further peso crash and re-imposition of capital controls before handing power to Fernández. Doctrine positioned as centrist-reformist; revealed content was partial liberalisation derailed by BOP crisis + IMF programme.

Policy-content fingerprint — how the framework codes this movement on its axes

↑
trade openness
regulatory.trade_openness
Trade policy openness — tariffs, non-tariff barriers, FTAs, industrial protection.
increased · moderate
more open trade
Export taxes on grains reduced; import licensing eased.
↑
product market competition
regulatory.product_market_competition
Product-market regulation, entry barriers, licensing burdens, network-industry regulation, price controls.
increased · moderate
more competition-friendly (lower entry barriers)
Price-control rollback; utility tariff liberalisation.
↓
sectoral subsidy
fiscal.sectoral_subsidy
Targeted industrial and sectoral subsidies (renewable energy, chip manufacturing, agriculture, green hydrogen, etc).
decreased · moderate
reduced sectoral subsidies
Energy + transport subsidy cuts via tariff normalisation.
↓
spending level
fiscal.spending_level
General government spending as share of GDP, excluding transfers already captured under fiscal.transfer_expansion to avoid double-counting.
decreased · weak
lower spending share
Gradualism — deficit reduction slower than planned; re-tightened under IMF SBA.
↑
central bank independence
monetary.central_bank_independence
De jure and de facto independence of the central bank from fiscal authority. Per D.1.5 scope, one of the framework's defensible monetary positions.
increased · moderate
greater independence (legal, operational, personnel)
Inflation-targeting regime + restored INDEC credibility; partially reversed after 2018 crisis.
↑
financial deregulation
regulatory.financial_deregulation
Financial-sector regulation — banking separation, capital requirements, cross-border activity rules, derivatives oversight.
increased · moderate
tighter financial regulation
Capital-account liberalisation; holdout settlement restored market access.

Policies enacted

What the data says — linked outcome hypotheses

The movement's outcome claims are tied to these hypotheses. Verdicts update as models run.

not yet written
austerity_growth_recovery_tradeoff
inconclusive
hyperinflation_requires_fiscal_dominance
INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['hanke:hyperinflation_table']

Schools of thought aligned or opposed

partial
chicago_monetarism
partial
austrian
Austrians criticised gradualism as insufficient.
opposed
post_keynesian

References

Notes

Chamber of Deputies 2015: Cambiemos ~91 seats (35%); after 2017 midterms ~107 seats (~42%). Never held Senate majority.