Menem PJ second term — Tequila effect, privatisation completion, IMF orthodoxy

Doctrine — stated goals and content

Convertibility second-chapter defending the currency board through Tequila contagion, completing privatisation, and drifting toward fiscal fragility. Five doctrinal pillars: (a) Tequila defence — Mexican December 1994 devaluation triggered bank run; $8B reserve drain; deposits fell 18% Dec 1994 - May 1995; 15 April 1995 IMF $2.4B EFF augmentation; 1995 GDP contracted 2.8% before rebound 5.5% (1996) + 8.1% (1997). (b) Privatisation completion — YPF full divestment, banking consolidation (Banco Nación excepted), concessions for airports (Aeropuertos Argentina 2000, 1998), postal, nuclear; pension system reform AFJPs fully phased. (c) Cavallo rupture July 1996 — Cavallo dismissed over accusations of "mafias enquistadas"; Roque Fernández continued orthodoxy but without architect authority. (d) Corruption scandals — IBM-Banco Nación bribery, arms-to-Croatia/Ecuador (1991-1995, breaking UN embargo), AMIA bombing 1994 cover-up allegations, María Soledad case. (e) Late-term fragility — 1998 Asian+Russian contagion; 1999 Brazilian Real devaluation eroded Mercosur competitiveness; unemployment 17.5% by Oct 1996; FREPASO-UCR Alianza formed 1997. Stated school: Washington Consensus + Peronist-populist retention. Left-right: economic right + Peronist-clientelist. Popularity: May 1995 first round 49.9% vs Bordón 29.3%; midterms 1997 PJ 36.3% vs Alianza 45.7%; October 1999 Alianza's De la Rúa 48.4% vs Duhalde 38.1%. Coherence: trade deeper 1991-1994 popular mandate for privatisation-completion proceeds and orthodox fiscal-monetary cover-through, at mounting cost of unemployment, corruption saturation, and Alianza opposition consolidation.