IESET.
Movements·australia_morrison_coalition_2018_2022

Morrison Liberal-National Coalition — pro-business plus COVID fiscal 2018-2022

AUS·20182022·Liberal Party of Australia - Nationals Coalition (Morrison ministry, from 24 August 2018; elected in own right 18 May 2019)
Leaders: Scott Morrison (Prime Minister, 24 Aug 2018 - 23 May 2022) · Josh Frydenberg (Treasurer) · Mathias Cormann → Simon Birmingham (Finance) · Angus Taylor (Energy and Emissions Reduction) · Philip Lowe (RBA Governor)
positionsclassical_liberalnew_keynesianempirical_pragmatistaustrian

Doctrine — stated goals and content

Liberal-National centre-right pro-business and fiscal-consolidation platform that was forced into the largest peacetime fiscal expansion in Australian history by COVID-19, combined with a sharply elevated strategic posture toward China culminating in AUKUS. Left-right axis: centre-right with a suburban-aspirational marketing frame ("quiet Australians"), socially conservative on religious-freedom legislation but pragmatic on fiscal policy once the pandemic hit. Key policy content: (i) JobKeeper wage subsidy enacted 8 April 2020 at ~A$90bn, the largest single fiscal program in Australian history, paying flat-rate wage support to firms with turnover falls of 30%+, operative through 28 March 2021; (ii) JobSeeker Coronavirus Supplement doubling unemployment payments March-September 2020 then tapered; (iii) HomeBuilder grant June 2020 — A$25,000 new-build and substantial-renovation grants, stimulating residential construction; (iv) Stage-2 and legislated Stage-3 personal tax cuts brought forward in October 2020 budget; (v) 2019 budget-surplus framing ("back in black") abandoned when pandemic hit, delivering successive deficits of A$134bn (2019-20) and A$213bn (2020-21); (vi) AUKUS trilateral security pact announced 15 September 2021 with conventionally armed nuclear-powered submarine pathway, cancelling the A$90bn French Attack-class contract; (vii) Religious Discrimination Bill withdrawn February 2022 after Coalition moderates crossed the floor; (viii) Technology Investment Roadmap October 2020 — low-emissions technology focus, avoiding economy-wide carbon price, with net-zero-by-2050 commitment adopted October 2021 ahead of COP26; (ix) major-bank levy maintained and banking Royal Commission response implementing 54 of 76 Hayne recommendations; (x) hard international border closure March 2020 - February 2022, including extended domestic internal-border closures. Popularity trajectory: won May 2019 election 77/151 seats on 41.4% primary against Shorten's higher-tax platform (the "miracle" win); approval peaked ~65% mid-2020 on COVID response, collapsed through 2021-22 on vaccine-rollout delays, bushfire response, and internal Coalition division; defeated 21 May 2022, Coalition reduced to 58 seats with six "teal" independents unseating Liberal moderates in blue-ribbon urban seats. Coherence line: pro-business fiscal- consolidation rhetoric plus emergency Keynesian pandemic response plus strategic-pivot AUKUS — "crisis-era Coalition pragmatism".

Policy-content fingerprint — how the framework codes this movement on its axes

spending level
fiscal.spending_level
General government spending as share of GDP, excluding transfers already captured under fiscal.transfer_expansion to avoid double-counting.
increased · strong
higher spending share
JobKeeper + JobSeeker supplement + HomeBuilder pushed deficit to A$213bn (2020-21), largest peacetime fiscal expansion.
transfer expansion
fiscal.transfer_expansion
Size of cash and near-cash transfer programmes (unemployment benefits, means-tested assistance, universal child benefits). Architecturally distinct from forced-saving schemes — see condition welfare_architecture.
increased · strong
larger transfer footprint
Coronavirus Supplement roughly doubled unemployment payments March-September 2020; JobKeeper pass-through to workers.
tax progressivity
fiscal.tax_progressivity
Progressivity of the personal income tax schedule, including top marginal rates, bracket spread, and targeted credits (EITC-equivalents).
decreased · moderate
less progressive (flatter rates, compression, smaller credits)
Stage-2 and Stage-3 cuts brought forward in October 2020 budget flattened the income-tax schedule.
sectoral subsidy
fiscal.sectoral_subsidy
Targeted industrial and sectoral subsidies (renewable energy, chip manufacturing, agriculture, green hydrogen, etc).
increased · moderate
expanded sectoral subsidies
HomeBuilder construction grant; Technology Investment Roadmap co-funding of low-emissions tech.
environmental stringency
regulatory.environmental_stringency
Environmental regulation stringency — emissions caps, standards, phase-out mandates, carbon pricing, renewable portfolio standards.
unchanged · weak
Net-zero-by-2050 adopted October 2021 but without interim legislated target or price instrument; Safeguard Mechanism baselines held flat.
trade openness
regulatory.trade_openness
Trade policy openness — tariffs, non-tariff barriers, FTAs, industrial protection.
decreased · weak
more protectionist
China trade tensions (barley, wine, coal tariffs from Beijing) and hard pandemic border closure, partially offset by UK and India FTAs.
rule of law
institutional.rule_of_law
Rule of law as institutional substrate — contract enforcement, judicial independence, equal treatment before the law. Upstream of most other axes.
unchanged · weak
Hayne Royal Commission response implemented 54/76 recommendations; multi-ministry appointments revealed post-office framed by successor government as rule-of-law concern.

Policies enacted

Schools of thought aligned or opposed

partial
classical_liberal
Pro-business Stage-3 tax cuts welcomed; scale of pandemic fiscal expansion opposed.
partial
new_keynesian
JobKeeper widely cited as textbook demand-side stabiliser in a pandemic.
opposed
austrian
Scale of transfer and wage-subsidy expansion viewed as moral-hazard and malinvestment-inducing.

References

Notes

Coded as distinct from Turnbull Coalition because (i) suburban- aspirational framing replaced small-l-liberal reformism, (ii) COVID fiscal response dominates the axis profile, and (iii) AUKUS is a first-order strategic pivot absent pre-2021.