Turnbull Liberal-National Coalition — small-l liberal reformer constrained 2015-2018

Doctrine — stated goals and content

Liberal small-l progressive reformer brand — innovation, agility, and market-liberal economic reform — constrained throughout by the Coalition's socially-conservative wing and by a one-seat majority after the July 2016 double-dissolution election. Left-right axis: centre-right on economics with a moderate-liberal cultural frame, the most openly centrist Coalition leadership of the post-Howard period; governed from a narrower policy space than either the doctrine or Turnbull's prior reputation implied. Key policy content: (i) Enterprise Tax Plan — ten-year corporate- tax-cut glide path to 25% for all companies, introduced 2016; Senate passed only the small-business (turnover <A$50m) component May 2017, full package abandoned August 2018 ahead of the leadership spill; (ii) Snowy 2.0 pumped-hydro expansion approved in principle March 2017 and funded through Snowy Hydro Limited recapitalisation; (iii) National Energy Guarantee developed through 2017-18 as a reliability-plus-emissions mechanism for the NEM, withdrawn August 2018 and triggering the leadership spill that removed Turnbull; (iv) same-sex marriage postal survey held September-November 2017 (61.6% Yes) leading to Marriage Amendment (Definition and Religious Freedoms) Act 8 December 2017; (v) Royal Commission into Misconduct in the Banking, Superannuation and Financial Services Industry established 14 December 2017 after Coalition party-room reversal, reporting under successor Morrison government February 2019; (vi) Personal Income Tax Plan May 2018 budget — legislated the seven-year Stage-1/2/3 tax cut package that Labor later partly undid; (vii) Medium- and Long-Term Population Plan maintaining high permanent migration (~190,000/year); (viii) National Disability Insurance Scheme rollout continued; (ix) Western Sydney Airport approved May 2017; (x) foreign-political-donation and foreign-influence transparency legislation enacted June-December 2018. Popularity trajectory: Turnbull entered with ~60% preferred-PM rating; Coalition won July 2016 double- dissolution election 76/150 seats (one-seat majority) on 42.0% primary; lost 38 consecutive Newspolls (the threshold Turnbull himself had used to challenge Abbott); removed in Liberal-party spill 24 August 2018 by Scott Morrison after Peter Dutton challenge. Coherence line: centre-right reformer throttled by party-room conservatives and a one-seat Senate arithmetic — "market-liberal rhetoric, incremental delivery".