Banzer ADN — Plan Dignidad coca eradication, Cochabamba water war, early exit

Doctrine — stated goals and content

Banzer's post-democratisation return to the presidency — coca- eradication maximalism alongside continuity-privatisation, capsized by water-war protests and terminal cancer. Five doctrinal pillars: (a) Plan Dignidad coca eradication 1998-2002 — zero-coca-by-2002 ambition; forced eradication of ~38,500 ha in Chapare 1997-2001; US-funded DEA/Embassy support; violent confrontations with cocaleros led by Evo Morales (expelled from Congress 2002). (b) Cochabamba water war January-April 2000 — Ley 2029 Drinking Water & Sewerage concession to Aguas del Tunari (Bechtel-led consortium); tariff hikes up to 50%; cocalero-led protests; martial law 8 Apr 2000; 17-year-old killed; concession reversed 11 April 2000; Bechtel later sued Bolivia at ICSID (settled for $0.30 in 2006). (c) Continuity privatisation — second-phase concessions (hydrocarbon fields, Cochabamba water, La Paz-El Alto water to Suez Aguas del Illimani until 2005 expulsion). (d) Post-democratisation institutional posture — Banzer accepted democratic rules after 1971-78 dictatorship, underwrote Pacto por la Democracia with MIR's Paz Zamora; rehabilitation narrative. (e) Early exit 6 August 2001 — cancer forced resignation; Jorge Quiroga 'Tuto' completed term (2001-2002) as youngest democratic-era Bolivian president (41). Stated school: Conservative authoritarian-rehabilitationist + Washington-Consensus. Left-right: right economically and socially. Popularity: 1 June 1997 first round 22.3% (won Congressional selection); approval eroded by water war + coca-eradication casualties to ~20-25%; 30 June 2002 first round Sánchez de Lozada (MNR) 22.5%, Morales (MAS) 20.9% (breakthrough); ADN collapsed to 3.4%. Coherence: trade cocalero-governance legitimacy + urban-water-tariff popular patience for zero-coca eradication metric, privatisation continuity, and institutional rehabilitation of Banzer — with Cochabamba water war the defining IESET-framework precedent for utility-concession political-economy risk.