Short-lived second term capsized by natural-gas-export controversy + fiscal-package protests. Five doctrinal pillars: (a) Gas-export- through-Chile plan — $1.3B Pacific LNG consortium (Repsol-BG- Panamerican) proposed routing gas through Chilean port; tapped into Bolivian maritime-grievance memory vs Chile (War of the Pacific 1879-1884); opposed by wide left+indigenous+nationalist coalition. (b) February 2003 impuestazo — IMF-approved personal- income tax package proposed 12.5% on higher salaries to close 8.5% deficit; sparked 12-13 February 2003 police mutiny + army clash in Plaza Murillo; ~33 deaths; tax package withdrawn. (c) Gas War (Guerra del Gas) September-October 2003 — El Alto + La Paz mobilisations organised by COB, neighbourhood councils, cocaleros; blockades; 17 September Warisata killings; 12 October El Alto massacre (~67 deaths total); ~400+ injured. (d) Resignation 17 October 2003 — Goni fled to Miami; Carlos Mesa Gisbert (VP) assumed; later Goni indicted in Bolivia and faced US civil liability (Mamani v. Sánchez de Lozada 2018 jury verdict $10M, overturned on appeal). (e) Rupture of 1985-2003 MNR governance cycle — marked end of Paz-Estenssoro-to-Goni neoliberal pacted-democracy era. Stated school: Washington- Consensus orthodoxy with fiscal-rule focus; crisis management. Left-right: economic right; politically centre coalition. Popularity: 30 June 2002 first round 22.5% vs Morales 20.9%; won Congressional selection; approval collapsed to ~10% by Sept 2003; forced resignation. Coherence: trade democratic- pacted MNR governance credibility for gas-export fiscal- rationality + impuestazo deficit-closing — at terminal cost of regime collapse and 67 deaths, crystallising MAS-led indigenous- leftist counter-mobilisation.
Policy-content fingerprint — how the framework codes this movement on its axes