IESET.
Movements·bolivia_sanchez_de_lozada_ii_2002_2003

Sánchez de Lozada II — Gas War, impuestazo 2003, forced resignation

BOL·20022003·MNR + MIR + UCS (narrow Congressional selection)
Leaders: Gonzalo Sánchez de Lozada 'Goni' (President Aug 2002 - 17 Oct 2003) · Carlos Mesa Gisbert (Vice President; successor) · Javier Comboni / Viviana Caro (Hacienda) · Yerko Kukoc / Jorge Alvarado Rivas (Gobierno)
positionsclassical_liberal

Doctrine — stated goals and content

Short-lived second term capsized by natural-gas-export controversy + fiscal-package protests. Five doctrinal pillars: (a) Gas-export- through-Chile plan — $1.3B Pacific LNG consortium (Repsol-BG- Panamerican) proposed routing gas through Chilean port; tapped into Bolivian maritime-grievance memory vs Chile (War of the Pacific 1879-1884); opposed by wide left+indigenous+nationalist coalition. (b) February 2003 impuestazo — IMF-approved personal- income tax package proposed 12.5% on higher salaries to close 8.5% deficit; sparked 12-13 February 2003 police mutiny + army clash in Plaza Murillo; ~33 deaths; tax package withdrawn. (c) Gas War (Guerra del Gas) September-October 2003 — El Alto + La Paz mobilisations organised by COB, neighbourhood councils, cocaleros; blockades; 17 September Warisata killings; 12 October El Alto massacre (~67 deaths total); ~400+ injured. (d) Resignation 17 October 2003 — Goni fled to Miami; Carlos Mesa Gisbert (VP) assumed; later Goni indicted in Bolivia and faced US civil liability (Mamani v. Sánchez de Lozada 2018 jury verdict $10M, overturned on appeal). (e) Rupture of 1985-2003 MNR governance cycle — marked end of Paz-Estenssoro-to-Goni neoliberal pacted-democracy era. Stated school: Washington- Consensus orthodoxy with fiscal-rule focus; crisis management. Left-right: economic right; politically centre coalition. Popularity: 30 June 2002 first round 22.5% vs Morales 20.9%; won Congressional selection; approval collapsed to ~10% by Sept 2003; forced resignation. Coherence: trade democratic- pacted MNR governance credibility for gas-export fiscal- rationality + impuestazo deficit-closing — at terminal cost of regime collapse and 67 deaths, crystallising MAS-led indigenous- leftist counter-mobilisation.

Policy-content fingerprint — how the framework codes this movement on its axes

tax progressivity
fiscal.tax_progressivity
Progressivity of the personal income tax schedule, including top marginal rates, bracket spread, and targeted credits (EITC-equivalents).
increased · weak
more progressive (higher top rates, wider spread, larger targeted credits)
Impuestazo attempted progressive IRPF; withdrawn after 33 deaths.
product market competition
regulatory.product_market_competition
Product-market regulation, entry barriers, licensing burdens, network-industry regulation, price controls.
unchanged · weak
Gas-export concession proposed but not executed.
rule of law
institutional.rule_of_law
Rule of law as institutional substrate — contract enforcement, judicial independence, equal treatment before the law. Upstream of most other axes.
decreased · strong
weaker rule of law
67+ deaths in state-protester violence; forced presidential resignation.
spending level
fiscal.spending_level
General government spending as share of GDP, excluding transfers already captured under fiscal.transfer_expansion to avoid double-counting.
unchanged · weak
Deficit-closing attempt failed; baseline unchanged.

Policies enacted

What the data says — linked outcome hypotheses

The movement's outcome claims are tied to these hypotheses. Verdicts update as models run.

not yet written
natural_resource_export_contention
not yet written
fiscal_consolidation_political_limit

Schools of thought aligned or opposed

References

Notes

Terminal movement of 1985-2003 MNR-led neoliberal cycle.