IESET.
Movements·brazil_dilma_rousseff_pt_2011_2016

Dilma Rousseff PT — matriz econômica, pedaladas, Lava Jato, impeachment

BRA·2011 – 2016·PT + PMDB + broad coalition (fractured 2015-2016)
Leaders: Dilma Rousseff (President 2011-2016, impeached 31 Aug 2016) · Guido Mantega (Finance 2011-2014) · Joaquim Levy (Finance Jan-Dec 2015) · Nelson Barbosa (Finance 2015-2016) · Alexandre Tombini (BCB 2011-2016)
positionsdevelopmentalismpost_keynesianordoliberal

Doctrine — stated goals and content

Dilma's doctrine evolved from "matriz econômica" interventionism to emergency orthodoxy to political paralysis. (a) Economic school: heterodox developmentalist "nova matriz econômica" (Mantega): administered prices (electricity tariff forcing Sep 2012, fuel price freeze), BNDES subsidised credit expansion, IPI auto-sector holidays, currency-intervention push, accounting manoeuvres ("pedaladas fiscais") to hide primary deficits via delayed transfers to Caixa/BB/BNDES, ending in Jan 2015 Joaquim Levy orthodox-adjustment U-turn (strong fiscal tightening, credit-cycle reversal) before Nelson Barbosa replacement Dec 2015. (b) Left-right: centre-left; structurally more interventionist than Lula. (c) Dated policies: Plano Brasil Maior Aug 2011, electricity tariff forcing MP 579 Sep 2012, IPI auto-holidays 2011-2014, Copa 2014, Lava Jato investigation launched 17 Mar 2014, re-election Oct 2014 51.6%, Levy fiscal contraction 2015, TCU rejection of Dilma 2014 accounts Oct 2015, Câmara impeachment vote 17 Apr 2016, Senate impeachment 31 Aug 2016 (61-20). (d) Popularity: won first round 2010 then runoff 56.1%; approval 79% Mar 2013, collapsed to 8% in Mar 2016 after Petrolão + recession. (e) Coherence: low — "matriz" collided with 2014 commodity reversal + Petrobras scandal + hidden-deficit revelations; Levy pivot disavowed 2010-2014 doctrine mid-stream; impeachment was formally on pedaladas but politically on recession + Lava Jato.

Policy-content fingerprint — how the framework codes this movement on its axes

↓
product market competition
regulatory.product_market_competition
Product-market regulation, entry barriers, licensing burdens, network-industry regulation, price controls.
decreased · moderate
more restrictive regulation, higher entry barriers
MP 579 tariff forcing + fuel price freeze + controlled-prices expansion.
↑
sectoral subsidy
fiscal.sectoral_subsidy
Targeted industrial and sectoral subsidies (renewable energy, chip manufacturing, agriculture, green hydrogen, etc).
increased · moderate
expanded sectoral subsidies
BNDES TJLP credit + IPI holidays + Plano Brasil Maior.
↑
rule of law
institutional.rule_of_law
Rule of law as institutional substrate — contract enforcement, judicial independence, equal treatment before the law. Upstream of most other axes.
increased · moderate
stronger rule of law
Lava Jato plea-bargain regime + 2013 anticorruption law enforcement scaled up.
↑
spending level
fiscal.spending_level
General government spending as share of GDP, excluding transfers already captured under fiscal.transfer_expansion to avoid double-counting.
increased · weak
higher spending share
Accounting-disguised primary deficit 2013-2014; Levy 2015 reversal.

Policies enacted

What the data says — linked outcome hypotheses

The movement's outcome claims are tied to these hypotheses. Verdicts update as models run.

not yet written
heterodox_macro_stagflation_risk
not yet written
pension_fiscal_trajectory

Schools of thought aligned or opposed

aligned
developmentalism
partial
post_keynesian
opposed
ordoliberal

References

Notes

Covers both Dilma I (2011-2014) and partial Dilma II (2015-Aug 2016, impeached).