Geisel military — II PND developmentalism + abertura

Doctrine — stated goals and content

Developmentalist response to the 1973 oil shock combined with controlled political liberalisation ("distensão" becoming "abertura"). Four doctrinal pillars: (1) Second National Development Plan (II PND, September 1974) — a USD ~150bn heavy-industry, energy, and infrastructure programme financed by external petrodollar borrowing; state enterprises Eletrobras, Petrobras, CSN, Siderbrás, and the BNDES as directing financier; import-substitution deepened into capital goods and intermediate inputs; (2) energy substitution — Proálcool programme (November 1975) mandating sugar-ethanol fuel; Itaipu binational hydro-dam construction (1975-1984); Brazil-West Germany nuclear agreement (June 1975) for eight reactors; Petrobras-risk-contract law (1975) opened E&P to foreign partners after 1973 oil shock; (3) controlled political liberalisation — "distensão" 1974 midterms allowed MDB opposition gains (16 of 22 Senate seats); 1977 "April Package" reversed via indirect senators; 1978 Amnesty Law signed under Geisel successor; AI-5 expired December 1978; (4) macro aggregate — growth remained 7-8%/year 1974-1977 (late "Brazilian miracle") but external debt rose from USD 17bn (1974) to USD 49bn (1979), inflation stuck near 40% by end of term, and the BOP vulnerability that detonated 1981-82 was seeded in this period. Stated school: national-developmentalist planning + state-enterprise expansion. Left-right axis: authoritarian- right on political content, statist-developmentalist-centre on economic content. Popularity / legitimacy: no direct election — indirect electoral college; 1974 ARENA-MDB legislative election MDB won 14.7M votes to ARENA's 10.9M, signalling erosion of regime legitimacy despite "miracle" growth. Coherence line: trade short- term BOP discipline for infrastructure + heavy industry capacity that would later support democratic Brazil's industrial base.