Lula II — Bolsa Família expansion, pre-salt, PAC

Doctrine — stated goals and content

Lula II crystallised a social-liberal developmentalist doctrine that combined macro orthodoxy with aggressive counter-cyclical policy and resource-nationalist industrial strategy. (a) Economic school: social- liberal — IT (inflation-target) + primary-surplus fiscal anchor + expanded cash transfers (Bolsa Família expansion to ~12.7m families by 2010), programme-of-accelerated-growth (PAC I 2007, PAC II 2010) infrastructure push, pre-salt-oil discovery Nov 2007 triggered a partition-of-production regulatory regime for pre-sal fields (Lei 12.351/2010) making Petrobras sole operator + Petrosal fund. (b) Left-right: centre-left; developmentalist + pragmatic pro-BNDES industrial policy + minimum-wage formula rule above-inflation. (c) Dated policies: PAC I 22 Jan 2007, Bolsa Família expansion through 2010, pre-salt discovery Tupi/Lula field Nov 2007, GFC countercyclical IPI auto-cuts + BNDES TJLP subsidised credit (2008-2010), pre-sal regime law Dec 2010, Olympic/World Cup bids won (FIFA 2007, IOC Oct 2009). (d) Popularity: re-elected Oct 2006 first-round tie, second-round 60.8%; approval peaked at record 83% (Datafolha Dec 2010) on GFC resilience; PT successor Dilma won Oct 2010 runoff 56.1%. (e) Coherence: high — macro orthodoxy maintained (primary surplus 3.2% GDP 2008, 2.1% 2010) whilst BNDES footprint, minimum-wage above-inflation rule, and pre-salt regime set up later heterodox drift under Dilma.