IESET.
Movements·brazil_temer_mdb_2016_2018

Temer MDB government — orthodox fiscal adjustment post-Dilma (Brazil)

BRA·20162018·PMDB/MDB-led centre-right coalition (PMDB, PSDB, DEM, PP, PR, PSD, PTB) following Dilma Rousseff impeachment August 2016
Leaders: Michel Temer (President 2016-2018, PMDB/MDB) · Henrique Meirelles (Finance Minister 2016-2018, prior BCB Governor 2003-2010) · Ilan Goldfajn (Central Bank Governor 2016-2019) · Eliseu Padilha (Chief of Staff) · Moreira Franco (Secretariat-General)
positionsclassical_liberalordoliberalnew_keynesiansocial_democratic

Doctrine — stated goals and content

Orthodox centre-right fiscal reformer government that assumed office after Dilma Rousseff's impeachment (Senate vote 31 Aug 2016) and pursued an aggressive liberalising agenda despite Temer's rock-bottom ~7% approval rating. Economic team led by Henrique Meirelles (ex-BCB Governor) framed the programme as restoring fiscal credibility after the 2014-2016 Nova Matriz Econômica collapse: the signature measure was PEC 241/55 — the Teto de Gastos (Constitutional Amendment 95, Dec 2016) freezing real federal primary spending for 20 years. Labour liberalisation followed (Lei 13467/2017, 11 Jul 2017) introducing intermittent contracts, negotiated-over-legislated collective bargaining, and making union dues voluntary; the outsourcing law (Lei 13429, Mar 2017) legalised third-party contracting across core activities. A proposed pension reform (PEC 287) failed to pass after the JBS-recording corruption scandal destroyed Temer's congressional support in mid-2017. Microsoft- and-chainsaw politics: economically orthodox, politically transactional with Centrão, deeply unpopular. Câmara seat share of the Temer coalition peaked around 60% (PMDB 66 + PSDB 54 + DEM 29 + PP 47 + others ~ 300+ of 513), yet public legitimacy collapsed — Temer never ran in 2018 and MDB's presidential candidate Meirelles got 1.2% in the first round. Framework codes policy content, not popularity — the 2016-2018 output is a clear liberal-orthodox swing bracketed by two very different governments (Dilma PT, Bolsonaro PL).

Policy-content fingerprint — how the framework codes this movement on its axes

spending level
fiscal.spending_level
General government spending as share of GDP, excluding transfers already captured under fiscal.transfer_expansion to avoid double-counting.
decreased · strong
lower spending share
PEC 95 / Teto de Gastos froze federal primary spending in real terms for 20 years — one of the most contractionary constitutional rules internationally.
labour market flexibility
regulatory.labour_market_flexibility
Ease of hiring/firing, collective-bargaining scope, minimum wage rigidity, temporary/permanent contract regulation.
increased · strong
more flexible (easier hiring/firing, less rigid bargaining)
Lei 13467/2017 and Lei 13429/2017 expanded flexible contracts, made union dues voluntary, and legalised wide-scope outsourcing.
product market competition
regulatory.product_market_competition
Product-market regulation, entry barriers, licensing burdens, network-industry regulation, price controls.
increased · weak
more competition-friendly (lower entry barriers)
Privatisation signals (Eletrobras announced 2017, BR Distribuidora partial) and concession programme; execution mostly deferred to successors.
sectoral subsidy
fiscal.sectoral_subsidy
Targeted industrial and sectoral subsidies (renewable energy, chip manufacturing, agriculture, green hydrogen, etc).
decreased · weak
reduced sectoral subsidies
TLP replacing TJLP (Lei 13483/2017) raised BNDES cost-of-funds toward market rates, shrinking subsidised credit envelope.

Policies enacted

What the data says — linked outcome hypotheses

The movement's outcome claims are tied to these hypotheses. Verdicts update as models run.

not yet written
spending_cap_fiscal_consolidation_effect
not yet written
labour_market_flexibility_employment_effect

Schools of thought aligned or opposed

partial
ordoliberal
Constitutional fiscal rule resembles ordoliberal rule-based constraint.

References

Notes

Short two-and-a-half-year government but policy-dense. The Teto de Gastos is the single biggest constitutional fiscal rule enacted in Brazilian democratic history and the most salient legacy.