Self-described "socialism of the 21st century" executed under the binding constraint of an already-dollarised monetary regime that the government chose not to dismantle. Core content: the 2008 Constitution re-founded the state with expanded social and environmental rights; the November 2008 technical default on Global 2012 and 2030 bonds (declared "ilegítima" by the debt audit commission) reduced external debt service and was followed by successful re-engagement with Chinese lenders from 2009; renegotiation of oil contracts shifted rents to the state; tax reform raised corporate, capital-gains, and financial-transaction taxes; public investment in roads, hydro (Coca Codo Sinclair), and health and education rose sharply; cash transfers (Bono de Desarrollo Humano) were expanded; media regulation and judicial reorganisation consolidated executive authority. Because monetary policy was unavailable, the regime relied on counter-cyclical fiscal policy, Chinese credit, and later pre-sale oil financing, producing fiscal deficits from 2013 onwards as oil prices fell. Ended constitutionally in 2017; successor Moreno pivoted to an IMF programme. Outcomes: poverty headcount fell sharply, public infrastructure expanded, GDP growth averaged ~3% per year, but fiscal vulnerability accumulated and institutional-quality indicators weakened.
Policy-content fingerprint — how the framework codes this movement on its axes
Size of cash and near-cash transfer programmes (unemployment benefits, means-tested assistance, universal child benefits). Architecturally distinct from forced-saving schemes — see condition welfare_architecture.
increased · moderate
larger transfer footprint
Bono de Desarrollo Humano expansion; housing, disability, and education transfers.
Independence of the judiciary from executive and legislative encroachment. Specifically captures court-packing, selective prosecution, judicial reshuffles.
decreased · moderate
weaker judicial independence
2011 referendum restructured judicial council; executive influence over appointments increased.
CAIC (2008), Informe Final de la Comisión para la Auditoría Integral del Crédito Público
Weisbrot, Johnston, Merling (2017), Ecuador's New Deal, CEPR
IMF Article IV Ecuador 2015; 2019 EFF programme request documents
Notes
Analytically important case because the dollarised monetary regime pre-commits away one policy instrument, so the movement's content is concentrated in fiscal, regulatory, and institutional axes. Good stress test for whether the framework can separate fiscal expansion from monetary expansion effects.