IESET.
Movements·ecuador_lasso_creo_2021_2023

Lasso CREO centre-right banker-technocrat (Ecuador)

ECU·20212023·CREO – PSC (legislative alliance, then collapsed)
Leaders: Guillermo Lasso (President May 2021 – Nov 2023) · Simón Cueva (Finance 2021-2022) · Pablo Arosemena (Finance 2022-2023)
positionsempirical_pragmatistclassical_liberal

Doctrine — stated goals and content

Centre-right banker-technocrat market-orthodox program inside a structurally hostile National Assembly. Lasso (Creando Oportunidades, former Banco Guayaquil chairman) won the Apr 2021 runoff with 52.52% against Andrés Arauz. Doctrine centred on (a) Ley Orgánica de Desarrollo Económico (Nov 2021) — one-off wealth and corporate surcharges to close the fiscal gap while cutting investment-tax frictions; (b) Ley de Inversiones and free-trade pursuit (FTA signed with China May 2023, Costa Rica, Korea process); (c) completion of the Moreno-era IMF EFF (final review Dec 2022); (d) attempts at labour flexibilisation and SOE modernisation that were blocked by the Assembly or by the October 2021 referendum failing to be called, and by the Feb 2023 consulta popular losing on all eight questions. Facing impeachment over the "Caso Encuentro" allegations, Lasso invoked muerte cruzada on 17 May 2023 — the first use of Article 148 of the 2008 Constitution — dissolving the Assembly and governing by decree-law (11 decretos-ley económicos urgentes, mostly tax-simplification and investment) until the Aug 2023 early election. Did not stand for re-election. Popularity eroded from ~70% on taking office to sub-20% by mid-2023. Coherent as a compressed market-liberal package operationalised mainly through executive decree after legislative paralysis.

Policy-content fingerprint — how the framework codes this movement on its axes

tax corporate
fiscal.tax_corporate
Statutory and effective corporate tax rates, treatment of depreciation, and international competitiveness.
decreased · weak
lower corporate tax burden
Ley Desarrollo Económico simplified regime; later decretos-ley reduced corporate frictions, though a one-off wealth surcharge ran briefly the other way.
spending level
fiscal.spending_level
General government spending as share of GDP, excluding transfers already captured under fiscal.transfer_expansion to avoid double-counting.
decreased · weak
lower spending share
IMF programme completion; capex discipline maintained.
product market competition
regulatory.product_market_competition
Product-market regulation, entry barriers, licensing burdens, network-industry regulation, price controls.
increased · weak
more competition-friendly (lower entry barriers)
Ley de Inversiones reduced entry barriers and standardised investment contracts.
trade openness
regulatory.trade_openness
Trade policy openness — tariffs, non-tariff barriers, FTAs, industrial protection.
increased · moderate
more open trade
China FTA signed May 2023; Korea, Costa Rica, Canada processes advanced.
labour market flexibility
regulatory.labour_market_flexibility
Ease of hiring/firing, collective-bargaining scope, minimum wage rigidity, temporary/permanent contract regulation.
increased · weak
more flexible (easier hiring/firing, less rigid bargaining)
Decretos-ley included hiring-flexibility provisions after Assembly dissolution; Constitutional Court struck several.

Policies enacted

What the data says — linked outcome hypotheses

The movement's outcome claims are tied to these hypotheses. Verdicts update as models run.

not yet written
trade_liberalisation_small_open_economy

Schools of thought aligned or opposed

References

Notes

First constitutional use of muerte cruzada — Art. 148 of the 2008 Constitution. Case is analytically valuable for executive-vs-assembly institutional stress tests.