IESET.
Movements·ecuador_noboa_adn_2023_present

Noboa ADN security-first reformist (Ecuador)

ECU·2023 – present·Acción Democrática Nacional (ADN)
Leaders: Daniel Noboa (President Nov 2023 – ) · Verónica Abad (Vice-President, later sidelined) · Sariha Moya / Juan Carlos Vega (Finance)
positionsclassical_liberalempirical_pragmatist

Doctrine — stated goals and content

Centrist-liberal dollarisation-anchored security-first reformist program by a young business-family heir (Corporación Noboa, banana conglomerate). Noboa won the Oct 2023 early-election runoff against Luisa González with 51.83%, completing the Moreno-Lasso term, and was re-elected Apr 2025 with 55.62% on a full four-year term. Core content: (a) Plan Fénix / Phoenix Plan, a militarised internal- security doctrine — Decreto Ejecutivo 111 of 9 Jan 2024 declared a "conflicto armado interno" after the TV-studio takeover in Guayaquil and designated 22 criminal groups as terrorist organisations, authorising Armed Forces street operations; (b) Ley Orgánica para Combatir la Economía Criminal (Dec 2023) expanding asset forfeiture and financial-intelligence powers; (c) Apr 2024 referendum (11 questions) — security and extradition questions passed, labour- flexibility and casino questions failed; (d) fiscal — VAT rose from 12% to 15% (Mar 2024), fuel-subsidy reforms partly implemented; (e) electricity rationing through 2024 (up to 14-hour daily outages) from hydro drought plus under-investment, with emergency thermal-generation contracting; (f) USA alignment — bilateral security cooperation, asylum of VP Abad to Turkey as ambassador, debated military-bases constitutional question. Coherent as security-shock-therapy-plus-fiscal-tightening under dollarisation, with labour and deep-regulatory liberalisation politically blocked by the 2024 referendum result.

Policy-content fingerprint — how the framework codes this movement on its axes

↓
tax progressivity
fiscal.tax_progressivity
Progressivity of the personal income tax schedule, including top marginal rates, bracket spread, and targeted credits (EITC-equivalents).
decreased · weak
less progressive (flatter rates, compression, smaller credits)
VAT hike is regressive in incidence; income-tax schedule broadly unchanged.
↑
spending level
fiscal.spending_level
General government spending as share of GDP, excluding transfers already captured under fiscal.transfer_expansion to avoid double-counting.
increased · weak
higher spending share
Security and defence outlays rose; transfer spending broadly steady.
↓
sectoral subsidy
fiscal.sectoral_subsidy
Targeted industrial and sectoral subsidies (renewable energy, chip manufacturing, agriculture, green hydrogen, etc).
decreased · weak
reduced sectoral subsidies
Partial fuel-subsidy adjustment (extra, super) during 2024.
—
sectoral licensing
regulatory.sectoral_licensing
Sector-specific licensing regimes, concentration / quota allocation, state-controlled entry (energy, telecoms, healthcare, banking).
unchanged · weak
Emergency thermal-generation contracts accelerated; no systemic reform.
↑
rule of law
institutional.rule_of_law
Rule of law as institutional substrate — contract enforcement, judicial independence, equal treatment before the law. Upstream of most other axes.
increased · moderate
stronger rule of law
Stated goal of restoring state monopoly on violence; prosecutorial tools expanded; homicide rate fell sharply in 2024 from 2023 peak.
—
judicial independence
institutional.judicial_independence
Independence of the judiciary from executive and legislative encroachment. Specifically captures court-packing, selective prosecution, judicial reshuffles.
unchanged · weak
Cross-cutting: Constitutional Court upheld most executive decrees; Mexico embassy raid Apr 2024 strained institutional norms.

Policies enacted

What the data says — linked outcome hypotheses

The movement's outcome claims are tied to these hypotheses. Verdicts update as models run.

not yet written
state_capacity_security_growth
not yet written
dollarised_fiscal_consolidation

Schools of thought aligned or opposed

partial
classical_liberal
partial
empirical_pragmatist

References

Notes

Ongoing movement; axes_summary to be revised after full-term legislative output lands.