First-term consolidation phase of the Nuevas Ideas movement establishing the mass-incarceration security regime (Plan Control Territorial launched Jun 2019; régimen de excepción declared Mar 27 2022 after the 26-30 Mar 2022 gang massacre of 87 civilians; monthly continuous legislative renewal since), Bitcoin legal tender (Ley Bitcoin Decreto 57 approved Jun 8 2021 as world-first sovereign BTC adoption; effective Sep 7 2021; Chivo wallet launched with $30 per-adult BTC buy-in), and institutional capture (Feb 9 2020 "9F crisis" armed-forces entry into the Legislative Assembly pressing for $109m security loan; May 1 2021 overnight removal of the five Constitutional Chamber magistrates and Attorney General Raúl Melara on the first day of the new Assembly; Sep 3 2021 replacement Constitutional Chamber ruling that consecutive presidential re- election is permitted despite the 1983 Constitution's explicit bans in Articles 152 and 248; Jun 2021 termination of the CICIES anti-corruption agreement with the OAS after CICIES began investigating Bukele-allied officials; CECOT Centro de Confinamiento del Terrorismo opened Jan 2023 as a 40,000- capacity mega-prison). Ideologically heterodox: right- authoritarian on rule-of-law and security, statist-libertarian on money, interventionist-developmentalist on tech incentives, and pragmatic on fiscal management (2022 sovereign-default fears managed via 2023 debt buyback, continued IMF engagement culminating in the Dec 2024 EFF). The movement was a coherent governing coalition with mass popular mandate: Bukele won 53.1% in Feb 3 2019 first round (end of two-party FMLN-ARENA era), Nuevas Ideas took 56/84 seats on Feb 28 2021, and approval polling sustained 80-90% through 2019-2024 on the homicide-rate collapse from 38/100k (2019) via 17.6/100k (2021) and 7.8/100k (2022) to 2.4/100k (2023). The coding separates security-and- monetary-reform content from institutional-quality deterioration per Invariant 3. Human-rights reporting (Human Rights Watch, Cristosal, Amnesty International) documents ~85,000+ detentions under régimen de excepción with minimal judicial review, ~300+ deaths in state custody, and suspension of constitutional due- process guarantees via continuous 30-day renewal cycle.
Policy-content fingerprint — how the framework codes this movement on its axes
Rule of law as institutional substrate — contract enforcement, judicial independence, equal treatment before the law. Upstream of most other axes.
decreased · strong
weaker rule of law
Armed-forces entry into Legislative Assembly Feb 9 2020; régimen de excepción continuous since Mar 27 2022 suspending due-process; mass administrative detention.
Independence of the judiciary from executive and legislative encroachment. Specifically captures court-packing, selective prosecution, judicial reshuffles.
decreased · strong
weaker judicial independence
May 1 2021 overnight removal of Constitutional Chamber magistrates and Attorney General; Sep 3 2021 replacement Chamber authorised presidential re-election against constitutional text.
Decreto Legislativo N° 57 Ley Bitcoin (9 Jun 2021)
Decreto Legislativo N° 333 Régimen de Excepción (27 Mar 2022)
Sala de lo Constitucional Sentencia 1-2021 (3 Sep 2021)
Human Rights Watch, 'A Year of Abuses Under State of Emergency' (2023)
Cristosal, 'Un año bajo el régimen de excepción' (2023)
IMF Article IV El Salvador 2022, 2023
OAS, 'Terminación del Convenio CICIES' (Jun 2021)
TSE El Salvador Resultados 2019, 2021
Notes
First-term movement ended Jun 1 2024 at the start of the second term. Coding separates policy-content movements from institutional-quality deterioration. Ongoing review of homicide-series robustness as Cristosal and Human Rights Watch publish detention-dataset updates.