IESET.
Movements·eu_green_deal_2020

EU Green Deal + Fit for 55 climate regulatory stack

DEU, FRA, ITA, ESP, NLD, BEL, POL, SWE, IRL, AUT·2019 – present·European Commission (von der Leyen) + Parliament + Council
Leaders: Ursula von der Leyen (EC President) · Frans Timmermans (Green Deal VP 2019-2023)
positionsempirical_pragmatistaustrian

Doctrine — stated goals and content

Climate-neutrality by 2050 legal commitment + 55% emissions reduction by 2030 (Fit for 55 package). Core instruments: EU ETS extension to road + buildings (ETS2, 2027), Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM, 2023/26 phased), Renewable Energy Directive RED III, Energy Efficiency Directive, Industrial Emissions Directive revisions, Sustainable Finance (CSRD 2023, Taxonomy Regulation). Also associated: Green Deal Industrial Plan 2023 (responding to US IRA) + Net-Zero Industry Act 2024. Framework codes as strong-stringency + mixed industrial-policy content; links to green_transition_cost hypothesis.

Policy-content fingerprint — how the framework codes this movement on its axes

↑
environmental stringency
regulatory.environmental_stringency
Environmental regulation stringency — emissions caps, standards, phase-out mandates, carbon pricing, renewable portfolio standards.
increased · strong
more stringent environmental rules
Most ambitious environmental regulatory stack globally.
↓
trade openness
regulatory.trade_openness
Trade policy openness — tariffs, non-tariff barriers, FTAs, industrial protection.
decreased · moderate
more protectionist
CBAM imposes carbon-based border measures on imports.
↑
sectoral subsidy
fiscal.sectoral_subsidy
Targeted industrial and sectoral subsidies (renewable energy, chip manufacturing, agriculture, green hydrogen, etc).
increased · moderate
expanded sectoral subsidies
State-aid relaxation + Green Deal Industrial Plan subsidies.
↑
sectoral licensing
regulatory.sectoral_licensing
Sector-specific licensing regimes, concentration / quota allocation, state-controlled entry (energy, telecoms, healthcare, banking).
increased · moderate
tighter sectoral licensing / more state gating

Policies enacted

What the data says — linked outcome hypotheses

The movement's outcome claims are tied to these hypotheses. Verdicts update as models run.

inconclusive
green_transition_cost_trajectory_electricity_prices
INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — treatment 'aggressive_green_transition_dummy' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects
inconclusive
eu_regulatory_burden_productivity_drag
INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['constructed: gross value added per hour worked (OECD STAN or similar). EU-KLEMS preferred where available.', 'constructed: total factor productivity index (sector-level where possible; else country-level OECD productivity database)']

Schools of thought aligned or opposed

partial
empirical_pragmatist
opposed
austrian

References