IESET.
Movements·indonesia_jokowi_pdip_2014_2024

Indonesia Jokowi PDI-P era

IDN·20142024·PDI-P-led broad coalition (PDI-P, Nasdem, PKB, Hanura, PPP; Golkar and PAN joining from 2016; Gerindra co-opted from 2019)
Leaders: Joko Widodo (President 2014-2024) · Jusuf Kalla (VP 2014-2019) · Ma'ruf Amin (VP 2019-2024) · Sri Mulyani Indrawati (Finance 2016-2024) · Luhut Binsar Pandjaitan (Coordinating Minister / downstream policy) · Bahlil Lahadalia (Investment / Energy)
positionsdevelopmentalismempirical_pragmatistinstitutionalism

Doctrine — stated goals and content

Developmentalist infrastructure-push presidency combining public- works acceleration, resource-downstreaming nationalism, and a progressive consolidation of executive power. First-term flagship was an unprecedented infrastructure build-out (toll roads, MRT Jakarta, Trans-Sumatra, Trans-Papua, Patimban port) financed by fuel-subsidy cuts Nov 2014 and the tax amnesty of 2016. Second- term pivoted harder: the Omnibus Law on Job Creation (UU Cipta Kerja, enacted 5 Oct 2020) cut labour protections and streamlined licensing, the nickel export ban (Jan 2020) drove a downstream smelter boom and FDI from Chinese stainless-steel and EV-battery groups, and the Nusantara new-capital law (Feb 2022) committed Indonesia to relocating the capital to East Kalimantan. A VAT hike 10%→11% took effect April 2022. Institutional moves included the Sept 2019 KPK law revision weakening the anti-corruption commission, a Constitutional-Court decision (Oct 2023) clearing Jokowi's son Gibran to run as VP with Prabowo, and PDI-P co-option of former rivals. Coherence: moderate — developmentalist and nationalist-industrial in policy content, illiberal on institutions, and orthodox on headline fiscal.

Policy-content fingerprint — how the framework codes this movement on its axes

sectoral subsidy
fiscal.sectoral_subsidy
Targeted industrial and sectoral subsidies (renewable energy, chip manufacturing, agriculture, green hydrogen, etc).
decreased · moderate
reduced sectoral subsidies
Nov 2014 fuel subsidy cut redeployed to infrastructure; later offset by 2022 fuel-price interventions.
labour market flexibility
regulatory.labour_market_flexibility
Ease of hiring/firing, collective-bargaining scope, minimum wage rigidity, temporary/permanent contract regulation.
increased · strong
more flexible (easier hiring/firing, less rigid bargaining)
Omnibus Law on Job Creation 2020 loosened severance, minimum-wage formula, and outsourcing limits.
trade openness
regulatory.trade_openness
Trade policy openness — tariffs, non-tariff barriers, FTAs, industrial protection.
decreased · strong
more protectionist
Nickel export ban 2020, bauxite ban 2023, copper-concentrate downstreaming push.
product market competition
regulatory.product_market_competition
Product-market regulation, entry barriers, licensing burdens, network-industry regulation, price controls.
increased · moderate
more competition-friendly (lower entry barriers)
OSS licensing single-window and Omnibus Law entry-barrier reductions.
judicial independence
institutional.judicial_independence
Independence of the judiciary from executive and legislative encroachment. Specifically captures court-packing, selective prosecution, judicial reshuffles.
decreased · moderate
weaker judicial independence
KPK law revision 2019 added supervisory board and civil-servant status; 2023 MK decision seen as dynastic intervention.
tax corporate
fiscal.tax_corporate
Statutory and effective corporate tax rates, treatment of depreciation, and international competitiveness.
decreased · weak
lower corporate tax burden
Omnibus Tax Law 2021 reduced CIT 25%→22% (scheduled 20% deferred); tax amnesty 2016 broadened base.
spending level
fiscal.spending_level
General government spending as share of GDP, excluding transfers already captured under fiscal.transfer_expansion to avoid double-counting.
increased · moderate
higher spending share
Infrastructure spending share rose; COVID stimulus 2020-2021 lifted spending / deficits.

Policies enacted

What the data says — linked outcome hypotheses

The movement's outcome claims are tied to these hypotheses. Verdicts update as models run.

not yet written
resource_downstreaming_industrial_policy
not yet written
infrastructure_push_growth_effects
not yet written
omnibus_labour_reform_employment

Schools of thought aligned or opposed

opposed
institutionalism
KPK weakening, dynastic constitutional engineering.

References

Notes

Electoral: Jokowi 53.2% (2014), 55.5% (2019). PDI-P DPR seat share: 19.5% (2014), 22.3% (2019); coalition commanded >75% of DPR by end of second term after Gerindra's 2019 cabinet entry.