Developmentalist infrastructure-push presidency combining public- works acceleration, resource-downstreaming nationalism, and a progressive consolidation of executive power. First-term flagship was an unprecedented infrastructure build-out (toll roads, MRT Jakarta, Trans-Sumatra, Trans-Papua, Patimban port) financed by fuel-subsidy cuts Nov 2014 and the tax amnesty of 2016. Second- term pivoted harder: the Omnibus Law on Job Creation (UU Cipta Kerja, enacted 5 Oct 2020) cut labour protections and streamlined licensing, the nickel export ban (Jan 2020) drove a downstream smelter boom and FDI from Chinese stainless-steel and EV-battery groups, and the Nusantara new-capital law (Feb 2022) committed Indonesia to relocating the capital to East Kalimantan. A VAT hike 10%→11% took effect April 2022. Institutional moves included the Sept 2019 KPK law revision weakening the anti-corruption commission, a Constitutional-Court decision (Oct 2023) clearing Jokowi's son Gibran to run as VP with Prabowo, and PDI-P co-option of former rivals. Coherence: moderate — developmentalist and nationalist-industrial in policy content, illiberal on institutions, and orthodox on headline fiscal.
Policy-content fingerprint — how the framework codes this movement on its axes
Independence of the judiciary from executive and legislative encroachment. Specifically captures court-packing, selective prosecution, judicial reshuffles.
decreased · moderate
weaker judicial independence
KPK law revision 2019 added supervisory board and civil-servant status; 2023 MK decision seen as dynastic intervention.
Patunru & Rahardja (2015), 'Trade Protectionism in Indonesia', Lowy Institute
World Bank Indonesia Economic Prospects, various 2014-2024
Notes
Electoral: Jokowi 53.2% (2014), 55.5% (2019). PDI-P DPR seat share: 19.5% (2014),
22.3% (2019); coalition commanded >75% of DPR by end of second term after
Gerindra's 2019 cabinet entry.