IESET.
Movements·indonesia_prabowo_2024_present

Indonesia Prabowo Gerindra-led coalition

IDN·2024 – present·Koalisi Indonesia Maju — Gerindra-led super-majority (Gerindra, Golkar, Demokrat, PAN, PSI, PKB, Nasdem; PDI-P excluded at formation)
Leaders: Prabowo Subianto (President from 20 Oct 2024) · Gibran Rakabuming Raka (VP, Jokowi's son) · Sri Mulyani Indrawati (Finance, continued) · Rosan Roeslani (Danantara CEO-designate) · Bahlil Lahadalia (Energy / downstream) · Zulkifli Hasan (Food)
positionsdevelopmentalismchicago_monetarisminstitutionalism

Doctrine — stated goals and content

Populist-nationalist economic-statism that folds Jokowi's downstreaming-and-infrastructure programme into a larger state- capitalist consolidation. Flagship on the demand side is the Makan Bergizi Gratis (free nutritious-meal) programme launched Jan 2025, targeting ~83 million schoolchildren and pregnant women at an advertised run-rate ~Rp 450 trillion/year (~2% of GDP at full rollout). Flagship on the supply side is Danantara (Daya Anagata Nusantara, Feb 2025) — a sovereign-wealth vehicle consolidating state-owned-enterprise equity (Pertamina, PLN, Mandiri, BRI, BNI, Telkom) outside the finance ministry and outside standard audit scope, targeting USD 900bn in assets under management. Resource-nationalist continuity: nickel downstreaming, bauxite ban enforcement, push for a 'nickel OPEC'. Fiscal posture: VAT raised to 12% on luxury categories Jan 2025 (partial rollback from an originally planned universal hike), deficit ceiling 3% stretched with off-balance-sheet Danantara financing. Institutional posture: coalition holds ~81% of DPR seats, PDI-P squeezed into opposition; military-civic roles expanded via TNI law revision March 2025. Energy/resource nationalism also extends into the biodiesel mandate, with B40 running as the baseline blend and B50 scheduled for second-half 2026 implementation. Coherence: low — free lunches and macro-orthodox VAT hike pull against each other; Danantara and Sri Mulyani's budget discipline in visible tension.

Policy-content fingerprint — how the framework codes this movement on its axes

↑
transfer expansion
fiscal.transfer_expansion
Size of cash and near-cash transfer programmes (unemployment benefits, means-tested assistance, universal child benefits). Architecturally distinct from forced-saving schemes — see condition welfare_architecture.
increased · strong
larger transfer footprint
Free-meals programme is the largest single in-kind transfer expansion in Indonesian fiscal history.
↑
spending level
fiscal.spending_level
General government spending as share of GDP, excluding transfers already captured under fiscal.transfer_expansion to avoid double-counting.
increased · moderate
higher spending share
MBG + Danantara equity injections + infrastructure continuity lift spending share.
↑
sectoral licensing
regulatory.sectoral_licensing
Sector-specific licensing regimes, concentration / quota allocation, state-controlled entry (energy, telecoms, healthcare, banking).
increased · moderate
tighter sectoral licensing / more state gating
Danantara consolidates SOE ownership and investment decisions outside line-ministry gating; net effect is tighter state gating over strategic sectors.
↓
trade openness
regulatory.trade_openness
Trade policy openness — tariffs, non-tariff barriers, FTAs, industrial protection.
decreased · moderate
more protectionist
Continuity and extension of nickel / bauxite / copper export bans; push for cartel-like nickel coordination.
↓
rule of law
institutional.rule_of_law
Rule of law as institutional substrate — contract enforcement, judicial independence, equal treatment before the law. Upstream of most other axes.
decreased · moderate
weaker rule of law
TNI law revision 2025 expanded military roles in civilian administration; Danantara audit carve-out.
↓
tax progressivity
fiscal.tax_progressivity
Progressivity of the personal income tax schedule, including top marginal rates, bracket spread, and targeted credits (EITC-equivalents).
decreased · weak
less progressive (flatter rates, compression, smaller credits)
VAT hike to 12% on luxury categories (originally universal) is regressive at the margin, offset by targeted goods exemption.
↑
energy supply security
regulatory.energy_supply_security
Policy posture toward energy supply security — domestic production capacity, import diversification, strategic reserves, nuclear stance, fossil-fuel mix discipline.
increased · moderate
higher supply-security posture (diversified, strategic reserves)
B40/B50 biodiesel mandate increases domestic biofuel blending and reduces diesel-import exposure.
↑
environmental stringency
regulatory.environmental_stringency
Environmental regulation stringency — emissions caps, standards, phase-out mandates, carbon pricing, renewable portfolio standards.
increased · weak
more stringent environmental rules
Higher biodiesel blending is framed as a lower-emission fuel-mix intervention, despite palm-oil land-use caveats.

Policies enacted

What the data says — linked outcome hypotheses

The movement's outcome claims are tied to these hypotheses. Verdicts update as models run.

not yet written
sovereign_wealth_fund_state_capitalism_effects
not yet written
universal_in_kind_transfer_child_development

Schools of thought aligned or opposed

aligned
developmentalism
opposed
chicago_monetarism
opposed
institutionalism

References

Notes

Electoral: Prabowo-Gibran won 58.6% first round, 14 Feb 2024 (absolute majority avoided runoff). Coalition commands ~81% of DPR seats — largest single-president coalition share since Reformasi.