IESET.
Movements·indonesia_suharto_new_order_1965_1998

Indonesia Suharto New Order

IDN·1966 – 1998·Golkar-military 'New Order' authoritarian regime
Leaders: Suharto (President 1967-1998) · Widjojo Nitisastro and the 'Berkeley Mafia' economic team · B. J. Habibie (technology/industrial portfolio)
positionsdevelopmentalismchicago_monetarisminstitutionalism

Doctrine — stated goals and content

Authoritarian developmentalist regime that followed the 1965-66 mass killings and displacement of Sukarno. Economic management delegated to the US-trained 'Berkeley Mafia' technocrats, who stabilised hyperinflation (1966-1970), re-opened to Western aid and FDI (PMA Law 1967), and ran orthodox fiscal balance with a 'balanced budget' rule financed by oil rents and concessional lending. Oil windfalls (1973, 1979) funded rural development (BIMAS, INPRES), rice self- sufficiency (1984), universal primary education, and family planning. A statist Habibie-led heavy-industry drive from the 1980s (IPTN aircraft, Krakatau Steel) coexisted with trade liberalisation packages from 1986. Crony capitalism around the Suharto family and conglomerates deepened from the 1990s. The regime collapsed in the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis amid capital flight, a 85% rupiah depreciation, and an IMF programme that Suharto partially repudiated.

Policy-content fingerprint — how the framework codes this movement on its axes

↑
sectoral subsidy
fiscal.sectoral_subsidy
Targeted industrial and sectoral subsidies (renewable energy, chip manufacturing, agriculture, green hydrogen, etc).
increased · strong
expanded sectoral subsidies
Oil-funded rural development, input subsidies, strategic-industry support.
~
trade openness
regulatory.trade_openness
Trade policy openness — tariffs, non-tariff barriers, FTAs, industrial protection.
mixed
High protection for strategic industries coexisted with export-promotion reforms (1986 Paket) and tariff reductions in the 1990s.
↓
rule of law
institutional.rule_of_law
Rule of law as institutional substrate — contract enforcement, judicial independence, equal treatment before the law. Upstream of most other axes.
decreased · strong
weaker rule of law
Authoritarian rule, politicised courts, suppression of dissent and organised labour.
~
property rights
institutional.property_rights
Security of private property rights — formal recognition, expropriation risk, titling systems.
mixed
Formal property protection for favoured conglomerates; insecurity and expropriation risk for outsiders, especially ethnic-Chinese business and rural smallholders.
↓
financial deregulation
regulatory.financial_deregulation
Financial-sector regulation — banking separation, capital requirements, cross-border activity rules, derivatives oversight.
decreased · moderate
looser financial regulation
1988 PAKTO banking deregulation opened bank licensing; prudential oversight lagged and fed the 1997 crisis.

Policies enacted

What the data says — linked outcome hypotheses

The movement's outcome claims are tied to these hypotheses. Verdicts update as models run.

not yet written
developmentalist_state_growth_performance
not yet written
currency_crisis_capital_flight_dynamic

Schools of thought aligned or opposed

aligned
developmentalism
partial
chicago_monetarism
Berkeley Mafia orthodox macro stabilisation + balanced-budget rule; industrial policy and crony allocation inconsistent.
opposed
institutionalism
Weak institutions and crony allocation are the standard institutionalist critique.

References