IESET.
Movements·israel_netanyahu_vi_2022_present

Netanyahu sixth government 2022–present

ISR·2022 – present·Likud + Religious Zionism + Otzma Yehudit + Noam + Shas + United Torah Judaism
Leaders: Benjamin Netanyahu (PM, Likud, from 29 Dec 2022) · Bezalel Smotrich (Finance Minister, Religious Zionism) · Yariv Levin (Justice Minister, Likud — lead architect of judicial reform) · Itamar Ben-Gvir (National Security Minister, Otzma Yehudit) · Aryeh Deri (Shas) · Amir Yaron (Bank of Israel Governor)
positionsclassical_liberalordoliberalnew_keynesianempirical_pragmatist

Doctrine — stated goals and content

Most right-wing, most religious coalition in Israeli history. Likud right plus religious-Zionist bloc (Religious Zionism, Otzma Yehudit, Noam) plus ultra-Orthodox (Shas, UTJ); 64 of 120 Knesset seats, with Likud alone holding 32. Three-pillared economic-institutional doctrine. (1) Judicial overhaul — plan unveiled 4 January 2023 by Justice Minister Yariv Levin: override clause allowing 61-MK Knesset majority to overturn Supreme Court rulings, political control of judicial-appointment panel, curbs on the 'reasonableness' standard; the reasonableness-clause repeal passed 24 July 2023 before being struck down by the Supreme Court 15-to-1 on 1 January 2024. Triggered the largest sustained protest movement in Israeli history — the 'Kaplanist' weekly demonstrations on Kaplan Street drew 100,000– 500,000 for 39+ consecutive weeks, reservist refusals, tech-sector capital flight, and credit-outlook downgrades. (2) Settlement expansion and Finance-Ministry control over West Bank civil administration under the Smotrich coalition agreement, diverting Palestinian Authority clearance revenues. (3) War economy after the Hamas attack of 7 October 2023 (~1,200 Israelis killed, 250+ hostages taken) — Operation Swords of Iron in Gaza with prolonged multi-front escalation (Hezbollah exchanges, Houthi shipping attacks, Iran direct strike April 2024 and October 2024). Massive fiscal expansion: war-related supplementary budgets pushed the 2024 deficit target to 6.6% of GDP, defence spending up roughly 40%, with conscript-reservist output drag. Credit-rating downgrades: Moody's Feb 2024 (A1 from A2 → Aa3 cut to A2), S&P Apr 2024 and Oct 2024 (A+ → A → A-), Moody's Sep 2024 (A2 → Baa1 two-notch cut). Haredi-draft question split the coalition (Supreme Court ruling June 2024 required ultra-Orthodox conscription, UTJ/Shas demanded exemption law). Left- right axis: strongly right on security, institutional, and religious- state dimensions; fiscally expansionary in wartime (not classical- liberal small-state). Popularity: Netanyahu approval collapsed from ~46% pre-Oct 7 to ~30% through 2024; Likud polling 18–22 seats mid-2024; rallied partially on Nasrallah killing Sep 2024 and Iran strikes. Coherence line: 'right-religious judicial overhaul plus war-economy fiscal expansion plus settlement entrenchment — institutional consolidation and emergency spending'.

Policy-content fingerprint — how the framework codes this movement on its axes

↓
judicial independence
institutional.judicial_independence
Independence of the judiciary from executive and legislative encroachment. Specifically captures court-packing, selective prosecution, judicial reshuffles.
decreased · strong
weaker judicial independence
Reasonableness-clause repeal passed July 2023; broader overhaul plan aimed at judicial-appointment control and override clause; struck down by Supreme Court January 2024 but institutional signal registered.
↓
rule of law
institutional.rule_of_law
Rule of law as institutional substrate — contract enforcement, judicial independence, equal treatment before the law. Upstream of most other axes.
decreased · moderate
weaker rule of law
Coalition agreements politicised prosecution-service oversight and West Bank civil administration transfer to Finance Ministry.
↑
spending level
fiscal.spending_level
General government spending as share of GDP, excluding transfers already captured under fiscal.transfer_expansion to avoid double-counting.
increased · strong
higher spending share
War-related supplementary budgets; 2024 deficit target raised to 6.6% GDP; defence outlays up ~40%.
↑
sectoral subsidy
fiscal.sectoral_subsidy
Targeted industrial and sectoral subsidies (renewable energy, chip manufacturing, agriculture, green hydrogen, etc).
increased · moderate
expanded sectoral subsidies
Settlement budget line expansion under Smotrich; ultra-Orthodox yeshiva funding increases per coalition agreements.
—
central bank independence
monetary.central_bank_independence
De jure and de facto independence of the central bank from fiscal authority. Per D.1.5 scope, one of the framework's defensible monetary positions.
unchanged · weak
Governor Yaron retained; BoI maintained operational autonomy through war despite political pressure for rate cuts.
↓
product market competition
regulatory.product_market_competition
Product-market regulation, entry barriers, licensing burdens, network-industry regulation, price controls.
decreased · weak
more restrictive regulation, higher entry barriers
Kashrut and import reforms of 2021-22 partially rolled back; religious-authority gating restored in several sectors.

Policies enacted

Schools of thought aligned or opposed

opposed
classical_liberal
Judicial overhaul and war-fiscal expansion opposed on institutional and fiscal-rule grounds.
opposed
ordoliberal
Erosion of independent-institution constraints on majoritarian legislature.
partial
new_keynesian
Wartime fiscal expansion textbook in emergency but scale and rating response flag sustainability.
opposed
empirical_pragmatist
Credit-rating downgrades and reservist-economy costs treated as measurable institutional-confidence shocks.

References

Notes

Ongoing movement; axes directions will be revisited as ceasefire path, Haredi-draft legislation, and 38th-Knesset election outcome resolve.