Ishiba LDP-Komeito minority government

Doctrine — stated goals and content

Reform-technocratic security-hawk LDP government led by Shigeru Ishiba, a long-time Seihō-kai (fiscal-conservative faction) figure and five-time leadership candidate, who took office 1 October 2024 and promptly called a Shūgiin snap election on 27 October 2024. The ruling LDP-Komeito coalition lost its majority for the first time since 2009 — LDP fell from 247 to 191 seats and Komeito from 32 to 24, for a coalition total of 215 seats against the 233 majority threshold — leaving Ishiba running a minority cabinet dependent on issue-by-issue cooperation with DPFP, Ishin, and occasional CDPJ abstention. Left-right axis: LDP centre-right with an Ishiba-specific fiscally conservative and regionalist edge — Ishiba is historically more hawkish than Kishida on primary-balance discipline, more openly supportive of BoJ normalisation, and more focused on regional-revitalisation and agricultural-sector reform than on Tokyo-centred growth policy. Key policy content: (i) continuity of BoJ yield-curve-control exit and post-NIRP normalisation under Governor Ueda, with the January 2025 hike to 0.5% and subsequent cautious path framed as non-interference with BoJ independence; (ii) response to the April 2025 US reciprocal-tariff shock (24% headline on Japanese imports, 25% on autos) — multi-round negotiations produced a July-August 2025 US-Japan trade understanding at an effective 15% tariff level, paired with a $550bn Japanese investment commitment framework; (iii) relaunch of regional-revitalisation (chihō sōsei) as a cabinet priority with expanded subsidies and a new Regional Revitalisation 2.0 framework from late 2024; (iv) continuation of the Kishida-era defence build-up toward 2% of GDP by fiscal 2027 with an Ishiba push toward an 'Asian NATO' conceptual frame that partners rejected; (v) partial rollback of LDP political-funding rules tightened post-slush-fund scandal, including reduced 'policy activity funds' disclosure thresholds; (vi) cost-of- living package with energy subsidies renewed and targeted cash transfers to low-income households; (vii) compromise minority-parliament passage of FY2025 budget including DPFP-demanded basic-deduction uplift ('¥1.03m wall' reform). Popularity: approval around 45-50% at outset, fell below 30% through 2025 on the tariff shock and weak parliamentary position; LDP has governed issue-by-issue with shifting opposition partners. Coherence line: fiscally-conservative security- hawk LDP minority governance — BoJ-normalisation-friendly, tariff- response-absorbing, regional-revitalisation-refocused — constrained by loss of Shūgiin majority.