IESET.
Movements·milei_shock_therapy_argentina_2023

Milei libertarian shock therapy (Argentina)

ARG·2023 – present·La Libertad Avanza + legislative deals with PRO
Leaders: Javier Milei (President) · Luis Caputo (Economy) · Federico Sturzenegger (deregulation minister)
positionsaustrianchicago_monetarismpost_keynesian

Doctrine — stated goals and content

Self-described Austrian-libertarian programme: zero-deficit fiscal consolidation via spending cuts (~30% real cut year-1), emergency decree deregulation package (DNU 70/2023), peso devaluation 54% on inauguration, attempted dollarisation framework (not yet implemented), labour-market flexibility reform, import-license elimination, rent- control and other price-controls repeal. Early outcomes: inflation from ~25% m/m late 2023 to ~2-3% m/m mid-2024; fiscal surplus achieved; severe recession + poverty spike 2024H1 followed by growth recovery 2024H2+; peso-gap closing but official rate still overvalued vs CCL through 2024.

Policy-content fingerprint — how the framework codes this movement on its axes

↓
spending level
fiscal.spending_level
General government spending as share of GDP, excluding transfers already captured under fiscal.transfer_expansion to avoid double-counting.
decreased · strong
lower spending share
Primary surplus achieved within months; provincial transfers cut.
↑
product market competition
regulatory.product_market_competition
Product-market regulation, entry barriers, licensing burdens, network-industry regulation, price controls.
increased · strong
more competition-friendly (lower entry barriers)
Hundreds of deregulations via DNU; rent controls + price controls repealed.
↑
trade openness
regulatory.trade_openness
Trade policy openness — tariffs, non-tariff barriers, FTAs, industrial protection.
increased · moderate
more open trade
Import-licence regime dismantled through SEDI replacement of SIRA.
↑
labour market flexibility
regulatory.labour_market_flexibility
Ease of hiring/firing, collective-bargaining scope, minimum wage rigidity, temporary/permanent contract regulation.
increased · moderate
more flexible (easier hiring/firing, less rigid bargaining)
Labour reform legislation partially enacted.
↓
transfer expansion
fiscal.transfer_expansion
Size of cash and near-cash transfer programmes (unemployment benefits, means-tested assistance, universal child benefits). Architecturally distinct from forced-saving schemes — see condition welfare_architecture.
decreased · strong
smaller transfer footprint
↓
tax capital
fiscal.tax_capital
Taxation of capital income (dividends, capital gains, inheritance, wealth). Distinct from corporate rate.
decreased · moderate
lower capital income tax
Fiscal package reduced the medium-term Bienes Personales burden and regularised declared assets.

Policies enacted

What the data says — linked outcome hypotheses

The movement's outcome claims are tied to these hypotheses. Verdicts update as models run.

not yet written
austerity_growth_recovery_tradeoff
inconclusive
hyperinflation_requires_fiscal_dominance
INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['hanke:hyperinflation_table']

Schools of thought aligned or opposed

aligned
austrian
aligned
chicago_monetarism
opposed
post_keynesian

References

Notes

Ongoing movement; framework should update codings as 2024-2025 outcomes materialise.