NLD·2024 – present·PVV-VVD-NSC-BBB four-party coalition under extraparliamentary PM Dick Schoof; programme negotiated as 'Hoofdlijnenakkoord' (main-lines agreement) 16 May 2024
Leaders: Dick Schoof (Prime Minister, July 2024 - present; non-party technocrat, ex-NCTV/AIVD) · Geert Wilders (PVV leader, coalition architect; not PM by agreement) · Dilan Yesilgoz (VVD leader) · Pieter Omtzigt (NSC founder; resigned Feb 2025 from leadership) · Caroline van der Plas (BBB leader, farmer-protest party) · Fleur Agema (PVV, Health Minister) · Marjolein Faber (PVV, Asylum and Migration Minister) · Eelco Heinen (VVD, Finance Minister)
Right-populist restrictionist (Wilders PVV) fused with liberal-conservative VVD, Christian-communitarian NSC fragment, and farmer-agrarian BBB, under a non-party technocratic PM — the first Dutch cabinet where the largest party (PVV, 23.5% vote / 37 seats Nov 2023) is openly anti-Islam and Euro-restrictionist but was kept from the premiership by the other three partners. Centre of gravity sits notably right of Rutte-era liberal orthodoxy on migration, culture, and nitrogen/farm regulation, while remaining fiscally conventional by Dutch standards (golden-rule framework intact; no Milei-style rupture). Signature content: (i) asylum "emergency" package — declaration of a "migration crisis", reintroduction of internal Schengen border checks December 2024, strictest-ever asylum bill (Asiel- noodmaatregelenwet) pushed through 2024-2025 despite NSC resistance; (ii) rollback of the Rutte-IV nitrogen buyout/reduction programme, halving of 2030 nitrogen-reduction targets, restoration of farmer-friendly PAS- successor framing; (iii) partial response to Supreme-Court Box-3 wealth-tax rulings (Kerst-arrest 2021 + June 2024 rulings) via a transitional flat- rate system and a promised real-capital-return Box 3 regime from 2027; (iv) continuation of the Wtp (Wet toekomst pensioenen) DB-to-DC pension transition enacted under Rutte IV, 2023; (v) housing: VVD-led deregulation of the Wet Betaalbare Huur mid-market rent cap, relaxation of "woningbouw- impuls" construction subsidies, and a stated 100,000 homes/year target; (vi) EU posture: tough renegotiation rhetoric on EU migration/asylum pact while remaining inside Eurozone discipline. Tweede Kamer seat share 81/150 (54%). Approval has been weak — PVV polling around 20-22%, NSC collapse to sub-5% post-Omtzigt resignation February 2025, BBB collapse from its 2023 provincial surge. Coherence: low — the four-way marriage holds on migration and farm-nitrogen rollback but fractures on Ukraine, climate, and rule-of-law questions, with the extraparliamentary PM absorbing political friction rather than resolving it.
Policy-content fingerprint — how the framework codes this movement on its axes
Housing-supply liberalisation and Box-3 real-return direction; market-leaning on tax mix.
References
Hoofdlijnenakkoord PVV-VVD-NSC-BBB, 16 May 2024
Regeerprogramma kabinet Schoof, 13 September 2024
Miljoenennota 2025 (Ministerie van Financien)
Hoge Raad arresten Box 3: HR 24 December 2021 (Kerst-arrest); HR 6 June 2024
Asiel-noodmaatregelenwet (tabled 2024, in parliamentary process)
Tweede Kamer election results 22 November 2023 (Kiesraad)
Notes
Flagged as early candidate with explicit uncertainty. Invariant 3 reminder: the coalition carries the PVV label but the policy-content coding weights migration and nitrogen content, which is where the durable movement exists. If the cabinet falls early, split into an enacted-only subset.