IESET.
Movements·nigeria_buhari_apc_civilian_2015_2023

Buhari APC civilian era (heterodox FX + protectionism)

NGA·2015 – 2023·All Progressives Congress (APC); first opposition defeat of an incumbent in Nigerian history (Jonathan/PDP). 2015 election: Buhari 53.96% (15.4m) vs Jonathan 44.96%. 2019 re-election: Buhari 55.60% (15.2m) vs Atiku 41.22%. APC NASS majority throughout both terms.
Leaders: Muhammadu Buhari (President 29 May 2015 - 29 May 2023) · Yemi Osinbajo (VP) · Godwin Emefiele (CBN Governor, held over from Jonathan, to June 2023) · Zainab Ahmed (Finance 2018-2023) · Kemi Adeosun (Finance 2015-2018)
positionsdevelopmentalismchicago_monetarism

Doctrine — stated goals and content

Buhari's civilian second-coming was a heterodox nationalist-statist programme distinct from both his 1984 military austerity and his APC market-liberal coalition partners. Core elements: fixed or tightly-managed naira peg defended via a multiple-exchange-rate regime (official, NAFEX/I&E, Investors', SMIS, parallel) under CBN governor Emefiele; 43-item FX import ban (2015) to force domestic substitution; land-border closure August 2019 - December 2020 ostensibly against rice smuggling; rice-pyramid and Anchor Borrowers' Programme agricultural populism; Petroleum Industry Act finally signed August 2021 after 20 years of drafts, restructuring NNPC to NNPCL. The 2016-2017 recession (first in 25 years, triggered by 2014 oil-price collapse + FX rationing choking imports) was answered with expansionary fiscal policy + CBN Ways-and-Means overdraft financing breaching statutory limits by multiples. COVID response April 2020 included IMF Rapid Financing Instrument $3.4bn (largest RFI globally at that point), temporary fuel- subsidy removal reversed within weeks. #EndSARS protests 20 October 2020 against SARS police unit culminated in the Lekki tollgate shooting, becoming the defining civic-trust rupture of the era. An eight-month ASUU university strike Feb-Oct 2022 closed federal universities. Left-right placement is incoherent: nationalist-protectionist on trade, statist- interventionist on FX and credit, socially conservative, fiscally loose. Coherence line: "Change / Next Level" — security, anti-corruption, and food self-sufficiency through managed markets.

Policy-content fingerprint — how the framework codes this movement on its axes

↓
trade openness
regulatory.trade_openness
Trade policy openness — tariffs, non-tariff barriers, FTAs, industrial protection.
decreased · strong
more protectionist
43-item FX ban; land-border closure 2019-2020; tariff escalation on rice, sugar, cement.
↓
central bank independence
monetary.central_bank_independence
De jure and de facto independence of the central bank from fiscal authority. Per D.1.5 scope, one of the framework's defensible monetary positions.
decreased · strong
lower independence (fiscal dominance, politicised appointments)
Emefiele Ways-and-Means overdrafts >N22trn by 2023; multiple exchange-rate regime.
↑
sectoral subsidy
fiscal.sectoral_subsidy
Targeted industrial and sectoral subsidies (renewable energy, chip manufacturing, agriculture, green hydrogen, etc).
increased · strong
expanded sectoral subsidies
PMS petrol subsidy ballooned to ~N4trn by 2022; ABP agri-credit subsidy.
↑
spending level
fiscal.spending_level
General government spending as share of GDP, excluding transfers already captured under fiscal.transfer_expansion to avoid double-counting.
increased · moderate
higher spending share
Recovery-era capex push; debt-service-to-revenue crossed 90% by 2022.
↑
sectoral licensing
regulatory.sectoral_licensing
Sector-specific licensing regimes, concentration / quota allocation, state-controlled entry (energy, telecoms, healthcare, banking).
increased · moderate
tighter sectoral licensing / more state gating
Petroleum Industry Act 2021 rewrote upstream/midstream licensing.
↓
rule of law
institutional.rule_of_law
Rule of law as institutional substrate — contract enforcement, judicial independence, equal treatment before the law. Upstream of most other axes.
decreased · moderate
weaker rule of law
Lekki tollgate shooting Oct 2020; DSS defiance of court orders on detainees.
↓
financial deregulation
regulatory.financial_deregulation
Financial-sector regulation — banking separation, capital requirements, cross-border activity rules, derivatives oversight.
decreased · moderate
looser financial regulation
CBN directed lending (LDR 65% minimum); cashless/naira-redesign demonetisation Jan 2023.

Policies enacted

Schools of thought aligned or opposed

partial
developmentalism
opposed
chicago_monetarism
Heterodox FX and fiscal-dominance regime antithetical to monetarist priors.

References