IESET.
Movements·peru_humala_gana_peru_2011_2016

Ollanta Humala — moderate-left shift, mining royalty, Conga

PER·2011 – 2016·Gana Perú (Partido Nacionalista Peruano + allies)
Leaders: Ollanta Humala (President 2011-2016) · Luis Miguel Castilla (Finance 2011-2014) · Alonso Segura (Finance 2014-2016) · Julio Velarde (BCRP Governor)
positionsempirical_pragmatistdevelopmentalismchicago_monetarism

Doctrine — stated goals and content

Humala governed as a moderate-left pragmatist despite 2006 radical- Chavista origins — what Peruvians called the "Lula route" vs the "Chávez route". (a) Economic school: pragmatic centre-left / developmentalist-lite — retained BCRP inflation-targeting + fiscal-rule framework, expanded cash-transfer programmes (Pensión 65 Oct 2011, Beca 18 Jan 2012, Juntos expansion), renegotiated mining tax regime (new mining royalty law + Impuesto Especial a la Minería + Gravamen Especial a la Minería, Leyes 29788-29790 Sep 2011, capturing ~USD 3bn over 2011-2014 from commodity windfall), inherited Alianza-del-Pacífico (founded Jun 2012), civil-service reform (Servir law 2013), public-sector wage reform. (b) Left-right: centre-left, governed from pragmatic centre. (c) Dated policies: mining royalty reform Sep 2011, Pensión 65 Oct 2011, Conga mining-project conflict Cajamarca Nov 2011 (protests + state of emergency, project suspended), Servir civil-service law Jul 2013, labour formalisation measures, Pacific Alliance treaty Feb 2014, 2014 Ley del Servicio Civil, Odebrecht-era infrastructure contracts (later ODB Lava-Jato criminal cases). (d) Popularity: won Jun 2011 runoff 51.4% vs Keiko Fujimori; approval peaked ~60% late 2011, fell to ~15-25% by 2015 on corruption + Conga legitimacy loss; did not run for re-election (constitutional); Gana Perú dissolved post-2016. (e) Coherence: moderate — pragmatic-centre governance contradicted campaign-era "Gran Transformación" radical platform; commodity-boom fiscal space masked growth-model brittleness when copper prices cracked 2014-2015.

Policy-content fingerprint — how the framework codes this movement on its axes

↑
tax corporate
fiscal.tax_corporate
Statutory and effective corporate tax rates, treatment of depreciation, and international competitiveness.
increased · weak
higher corporate tax burden
New mining-sector royalty + IEM + GEM raised effective mining tax burden.
↑
transfer expansion
fiscal.transfer_expansion
Size of cash and near-cash transfer programmes (unemployment benefits, means-tested assistance, universal child benefits). Architecturally distinct from forced-saving schemes — see condition welfare_architecture.
increased · weak
larger transfer footprint
Pensión 65, Beca 18, Juntos scale-up; conditional cash transfers expanded.
↑
trade openness
regulatory.trade_openness
Trade policy openness — tariffs, non-tariff barriers, FTAs, industrial protection.
increased · weak
more open trade
Pacific Alliance accession; continued USA-Peru FTA implementation.
—
rule of law
institutional.rule_of_law
Rule of law as institutional substrate — contract enforcement, judicial independence, equal treatment before the law. Upstream of most other axes.
unchanged · weak
Servir law institutionalised merit; offset by Odebrecht-era contract irregularities later surfaced.

Policies enacted

What the data says — linked outcome hypotheses

The movement's outcome claims are tied to these hypotheses. Verdicts update as models run.

not yet written
commodity_royalty_fiscal_effect
not yet written
moderate_left_policy_continuity

Schools of thought aligned or opposed

partial
empirical_pragmatist
partial
developmentalism
partial
chicago_monetarism
Retained macro orthodoxy.

References

Notes

Pragmatic centre governance from radical campaign baseline; Conga conflict is defining social-license shock.