IESET.
Movements·russia_putin_third_term_2012_2018

Putin third term Crimea annexation and oil-revenue consolidation 2012-2018

RUS·2012 – 2018·United Russia; Putin presidency, Medvedev as PM
Leaders: Vladimir Putin (President, 2012-2018) · Dmitry Medvedev (Prime Minister, 2012-2018) · Anton Siluanov (Finance Minister from 2011) · Sergei Shoigu (Defence Minister from Nov 2012)
positionsdevelopmentalismempirical_pragmatistinstitutionalismmarket_socialistnew_keynesiansocial_democratic

Doctrine — stated goals and content

Putin third term — state-capitalist annexation and oil-revenue consolidation. Economic school: Russian resource-nationalist authoritarian state-capitalism — 'May decrees' 2012 (high-wage-growth targets for public-sector workers, defence and social spending increases), Crimean annexation Mar 2014, Donbas war launch 2014, Syrian intervention from Sep 2015, Central Bank float of rouble Nov 2014 and emergency rate hike to 17% Dec 2014, counter-sanction food-import ban Aug 2014, fiscal-rule recommitment post-2016 oil-price collapse, pension-age rise announcement June 2018 (men 60->65 by 2028, women 55->63 by 2034 — heavily watered down to 60 after protests). 2018 Novichok Salisbury attack (Mar 2018). Left-right axis: state-capitalist authoritarian with right-nationalist ideology overlay. Dated policies: Crimea annexation Mar 2014 (18 Mar treaty), sanctions (US Mar 2014 EO 13660 et seq.; EU Jul-Sep 2014 sectoral), Syria entry 30 Sep 2015, CBR floating regime Nov 2014, pension-age reform announcement June 2018. Popularity: 80%+ after Crimea ('Crimean consensus'), eroded by pension-age reform. Coherence: very high — tight executive discipline, expanded siloviki influence.

Policy-content fingerprint — how the framework codes this movement on its axes

↑
spending level
fiscal.spending_level
General government spending as share of GDP, excluding transfers already captured under fiscal.transfer_expansion to avoid double-counting.
increased · strong
higher spending share
May decrees expanded public-sector wage bill and defence; military modernisation programme.
↓
trade openness
regulatory.trade_openness
Trade policy openness — tariffs, non-tariff barriers, FTAs, industrial protection.
decreased · strong
more protectionist
Counter-sanction import bans; strategic-sector tightening; sanctions isolation.
↑
central bank independence
monetary.central_bank_independence
De jure and de facto independence of the central bank from fiscal authority. Per D.1.5 scope, one of the framework's defensible monetary positions.
increased · moderate
greater independence (legal, operational, personnel)
CBR free-float Nov 2014 and inflation-targeting regime; operational independence preserved.
↓
rule of law
institutional.rule_of_law
Rule of law as institutional substrate — contract enforcement, judicial independence, equal treatment before the law. Upstream of most other axes.
decreased · strong
weaker rule of law
Crimea annexation breached international law; Foreign-Agents Law expansion; opposition prosecutions.
↓
transfer expansion
fiscal.transfer_expansion
Size of cash and near-cash transfer programmes (unemployment benefits, means-tested assistance, universal child benefits). Architecturally distinct from forced-saving schemes — see condition welfare_architecture.
decreased · moderate
smaller transfer footprint
Pension-age rise announcement tightens long-run transfer; counter-sanction-era real-wage decline.

Policies enacted

Schools of thought aligned or opposed

partial
developmentalism
derived: score=-0.30, overlap=5 axes vs developmentalism profile (mechanical backfill v1)
partial
empirical_pragmatist
derived: score=-0.27, overlap=5 axes vs empirical_pragmatist profile (mechanical backfill v1)
partial
institutionalism
derived: score=-0.35, overlap=5 axes vs institutionalism profile (mechanical backfill v1)
partial
market_socialist
derived: score=-0.21, overlap=4 axes vs market_socialist profile (mechanical backfill v1)
partial
new_keynesian
derived: score=-0.19, overlap=5 axes vs new_keynesian profile (mechanical backfill v1)
partial
social_democratic
derived: score=-0.32, overlap=5 axes vs social_democratic profile (mechanical backfill v1)

References