IESET.
Movements·spain_rajoy_pp_second_2016_2018

Rajoy II PP minority government (Catalan crisis) 2016-2018

ESP·20162018·PP minority (137/350) + Ciudadanos investiture + abstentions
Leaders: Mariano Rajoy (PM) · Luis de Guindos (Economy, then ECB VP from May 2018) · Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría (Vice-PM coordinating Catalonia response)
positionsinstitutionalismdemocratic_socialistdevelopmentalismeco_socialistempirical_pragmatistmarket_socialistnew_keynesianpost_keynesiansocial_democraticmarxianaustrianchicago_monetarism

Doctrine — stated goals and content

Second Rajoy government formed after 315-day political deadlock (two inconclusive elections Dec 2015 + Jun 2016) via PSOE abstention ('No es no' — Pedro Sánchez resigned PSOE secretariat rather than abstain; ultimately PSOE gestora allowed investiture). Economic school: centre-right stewardship with continued fiscal discipline; the political dominant is the Catalan sovereignty crisis. Signature actions: Catalan 1-O referendum (Oct 1 2017) declared unconstitutional; Art. 155 of the Constitution invoked (first ever, Oct 27 2017) imposing direct rule, dismissing Generalitat, calling 21-D regional elections; prosecution of pro-independence leaders (Supreme Court 'Proceso'); minimum-wage rise 8% 2017, 4% 2018 (with Ciudadanos bargain); 2018 budget expansionary relative to prior path. No-confidence motion by Pedro Sánchez succeeded Jun 1 2018 (180-169) triggered by PP Gürtel-corruption-case conviction. Left-right: centre-right. Popularity: PP 33.0% / 137 seats Jun 2016 (2.5% higher than Dec 2015 election), fell through 2017-2018 under Catalan and corruption pressure. Coherence: low — minority arithmetic, crisis-dominated agenda, ended by legal rather than electoral removal.

Policy-content fingerprint — how the framework codes this movement on its axes

rule of law
institutional.rule_of_law
Rule of law as institutional substrate — contract enforcement, judicial independence, equal treatment before the law. Upstream of most other axes.
increased · moderate
stronger rule of law
Art. 155 invocation and judicial prosecution of Catalan independence bid asserted constitutional framework.
transfer expansion
fiscal.transfer_expansion
Size of cash and near-cash transfer programmes (unemployment benefits, means-tested assistance, universal child benefits). Architecturally distinct from forced-saving schemes — see condition welfare_architecture.
increased · weak
larger transfer footprint
SMI minimum-wage rises 8% then 4%; modest 2018 budget relaxation.
spending level
fiscal.spending_level
General government spending as share of GDP, excluding transfers already captured under fiscal.transfer_expansion to avoid double-counting.
unchanged · weak
Deficit broadly on downward path; 2018 budget slightly slower consolidation.

Policies enacted

Schools of thought aligned or opposed

aligned
institutionalism
derived: score=+0.76, overlap=3 axes vs institutionalism profile (mechanical backfill v1)
aligned
democratic_socialist
derived: score=+0.86, overlap=3 axes vs democratic_socialist profile (mechanical backfill v1)
aligned
developmentalism
derived: score=+0.47, overlap=3 axes vs developmentalism profile (mechanical backfill v1)
aligned
eco_socialist
derived: score=+0.76, overlap=3 axes vs ecological profile (mechanical backfill v1)
aligned
empirical_pragmatist
derived: score=+0.98, overlap=3 axes vs empirical_pragmatist profile (mechanical backfill v1)
aligned
market_socialist
derived: score=+0.50, overlap=3 axes vs market_socialist profile (mechanical backfill v1)
aligned
new_keynesian
derived: score=+0.78, overlap=3 axes vs new_keynesian profile (mechanical backfill v1)
aligned
post_keynesian
derived: score=+0.66, overlap=3 axes vs post_keynesian profile (mechanical backfill v1)
aligned
social_democratic
derived: score=+0.81, overlap=3 axes vs social_democratic profile (mechanical backfill v1)
partial
marxian
derived: score=+0.40, overlap=3 axes vs marxian profile (mechanical backfill v1)
opposed
austrian
derived: score=-0.65, overlap=3 axes vs austrian profile (mechanical backfill v1)
opposed
chicago_monetarism
derived: score=-0.46, overlap=3 axes vs chicago_monetarism profile (mechanical backfill v1)

References