IESET.
Movements·spain_sanchez_2018_present

Sánchez-era PSOE-led progressive governance (Spain)

ESP·2018 – present·PSOE minority 2018-2020 (post no-confidence-vote removal of Rajoy/PP, 1 June 2018); PSOE-Unidas Podemos coalition 2020-2023; PSOE-Sumar coalition with parliamentary support of Junts/ERC/PNV/EH Bildu/BNG from November 2023
Leaders: Pedro Sánchez (Prime Minister, 2018-) · Nadia Calviño (Economy Minister 2018-2023; then EIB President) · María Jesús Montero (Finance Minister 2018-; Deputy PM from 2024) · Yolanda Díaz (Labour Minister from 2020; Deputy PM; Sumar leader) · Irene Montero (Equality Minister 2020-2023, Unidas Podemos; architect of Ley Orgánica 10/2022)
positionssocial_democraticpost_keynesianordoliberal

Doctrine — stated goals and content

Progressive coalition programme installed after the June 2018 no-confidence vote that removed the Rajoy PP government. Core content: (i) 2021 labour reform (Real Decreto-ley 32/2021) reducing prevalence of temporary contracts, restricting fixed-term hiring to narrowly-defined circumstances, and strengthening sectoral collective agreements over company-level derogations — designed to address Spain's chronic dualism; (ii) pension reform (Ley 21/2021 and Real Decreto-ley 2/2023) re-linking annual revaluation to CPI and introducing the Intergenerational Equity Mechanism via payroll-contribution surcharge; (iii) statutory minimum wage (SMI) increases from €736/month (2018) to €1,134/month (2024), a ~54% cumulative nominal increase; (iv) windfall/extraordinary taxes on banks and energy companies 2022-2023; temporary solidarity wealth tax on large fortunes 2023; (v) Ley 12/2023 por el derecho a la vivienda (May 2023 housing law) enabling regional rent caps in declared stressed zones; (vi) Ley Orgánica 10/2022 de garantía integral de la libertad sexual ("solo sí es sí") restructuring sexual-offence law around consent, merging the former aggression/abuse distinction, and broadening what counts as sexual assault — accompanied by transitional sentencing anomalies that triggered a partial legislative correction in 2023; (vii) COVID-19 ERTE furlough scheme 2020-2022 and NextGenerationEU Recovery and Resilience Plan disbursements; (viii) 2024 amnesty law (Ley Orgánica 1/2024) for actors in the 2017 Catalan independence process, politically central but economically secondary.

Policy-content fingerprint — how the framework codes this movement on its axes

~
labour market flexibility
regulatory.labour_market_flexibility
Ease of hiring/firing, collective-bargaining scope, minimum wage rigidity, temporary/permanent contract regulation.
mixed
2021 reform reduced temporary-contract prevalence (addressing dualism) but extended sectoral-agreement primacy and tightened firing margins; direction is genuinely mixed rather than a single sign.
↑
transfer expansion
fiscal.transfer_expansion
Size of cash and near-cash transfer programmes (unemployment benefits, means-tested assistance, universal child benefits). Architecturally distinct from forced-saving schemes — see condition welfare_architecture.
increased · strong
larger transfer footprint
Pension revaluation restored, minimum living income (IMV 2020) launched, ERTE scheme, NGEU disbursements.
↑
tax capital
fiscal.tax_capital
Taxation of capital income (dividends, capital gains, inheritance, wealth). Distinct from corporate rate.
increased · moderate
higher capital income tax
Solidarity wealth tax 2023, windfall taxes on banks and energy, closing of tax-planning margins on SICAVs.
↑
spending level
fiscal.spending_level
General government spending as share of GDP, excluding transfers already captured under fiscal.transfer_expansion to avoid double-counting.
increased · moderate
higher spending share
Expenditure share of GDP stepped up via COVID response and NGEU-financed investment; structural deficit reduced post-2022 but level elevated.
↑
environmental stringency
regulatory.environmental_stringency
Environmental regulation stringency — emissions caps, standards, phase-out mandates, carbon pricing, renewable portfolio standards.
increased · moderate
more stringent environmental rules
Climate Law 2021 (Ley 7/2021), 2030 NECP, phased coal closure, NGEU green conditionality.
—
product market competition
regulatory.product_market_competition
Product-market regulation, entry barriers, licensing burdens, network-industry regulation, price controls.
unchanged · weak
No material PMR liberalisation or re-regulation; housing law adds entry restrictions in declared stressed zones but scope is regional-optional.
—
central bank independence
monetary.central_bank_independence
De jure and de facto independence of the central bank from fiscal authority. Per D.1.5 scope, one of the framework's defensible monetary positions.
unchanged · weak
ECB-bound; Banco de España operational independence unchanged. Monetary channel exogenous to this movement.

Policies enacted

What the data says — linked outcome hypotheses

The movement's outcome claims are tied to these hypotheses. Verdicts update as models run.

partial
spain_sanchez_economic_trajectory_2018_2023
PARTIAL — coef=+0.009504, p=0.808 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive
supported
spain_reported_sexual_assault_rate_definition_controlled
SUPPORTED — coef=+1.2e+04 (sign matches claim +), p=0.0569

Schools of thought aligned or opposed

aligned
social_democratic
partial
post_keynesian
opposed
ordoliberal

References

Notes

Coded as one continuing movement despite the 2020 coalition reconfiguration (PSOE-Podemos) and 2023 reshuffle (PSOE-Sumar) because the doctrinal content is continuous. Monetary axis is exogenous (ECB) — Spain's fiscal-tax-regulatory content drives the coding. The Ley Orgánica 10/2022 ("solo sí es sí") is coded here as movement content because the hypothesis spain_reported_sexual_assault_rate_definition_controlled tests its measurement-regime effects on reported-crime series, which is a framework-critical definitional discontinuity rather than a value-laden claim about the law's merits.