IESET.
Movements·turkey_erdogan_third_presidential_2023_present

Erdoğan third presidential term — Şimşek orthodox pivot (Turkey 2023-present)

TUR·2023 – present·Cumhur İttifakı (AKP + MHP + smaller partners); third Erdoğan presidential term
Leaders: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan (President, third term from 3 Jun 2023) · Mehmet Şimşek (Treasury & Finance from 4 Jun 2023) · Hafize Gaye Erkan (CBRT Governor Jun 2023 - Feb 2024) · Fatih Karahan (CBRT Governor from 3 Feb 2024)
positionschicago_monetarismclassical_liberal

Doctrine — stated goals and content

Partial orthodox pivot within an otherwise continuous authoritarian executive presidency. Economic school: AKP orthodox pivot under Şimşek — rate hikes from 8.5% to 50%, commitment to rational-basis (Taylor-compatible) disinflation, FX-reserve rebuild, withdrawal of KKM flows, partial subsidy and transfer cuts, and a successful credit-rating upgrade cycle (S&P to BB- Nov 2024, Moody's to B1 Jul 2024, Fitch to BB- Sep 2024). Disinflation from CPI 75.5% (May 2024) to ~42% (Mar 2025); policy rate held at 50% Mar-Aug 2024 before cautious cuts began Dec 2024. Left-right: the wrapper remains Islamic-conservative / economic-nationalist / authoritarian, but monetary content reverses the prior phase. Key events: May 14 first-round presidential election and May 28 runoff (Erdoğan 52.18%), Şimşek pivot Jun 2023, Erkan appointment Jun 9 2023, rate-hike cycle Jun 2023-Mar 2024 (8.5% → 50%), 31 March 2024 local elections (CHP Imamoğlu re-elected Istanbul 51.1%; AKP nationwide 35.6% for first-ever second place in popular-vote — CHP 37.8%), Erkan resignation Feb 2024, Karahan rate hold, Imamoğlu imprisonment 23 Mar 2025 (pre-trial detention on corruption and terrorism charges, widely read as pre-emptive exclusion from 2028 ballot). Popularity: Erdoğan 52.18% in 2023 runoff; AKP 35.6% in 2024 local elections, approval under 40% by Q1 2025 on continued cost-of-living strain. Coherence: credible monetary-orthodoxy bloc ring-fenced inside a tightening authoritarian shell — the central tension of the phase.

Policy-content fingerprint — how the framework codes this movement on its axes

↑
central bank independence
monetary.central_bank_independence
De jure and de facto independence of the central bank from fiscal authority. Per D.1.5 scope, one of the framework's defensible monetary positions.
increased · moderate
greater independence (legal, operational, personnel)
De facto operational autonomy restored Jun 2023; Karahan held 50% against political pressure through 2024.
↓
monetary expansion direction
monetary.monetary_expansion_direction
Direction of monetary-base expansion decisions relative to trend. Separate from fiscal.transfer_expansion even when correlated.
decreased · strong
contractionary (balance sheet shrink, rates above Taylor)
Policy rate 8.5% → 50%, real rates turned positive in H2 2024.
↓
sectoral subsidy
fiscal.sectoral_subsidy
Targeted industrial and sectoral subsidies (renewable energy, chip manufacturing, agriculture, green hydrogen, etc).
decreased · moderate
reduced sectoral subsidies
KKM flows withdrawn and targeted subsidies pared; partly offset by earthquake reconstruction spend.
↑
financial deregulation
regulatory.financial_deregulation
Financial-sector regulation — banking separation, capital requirements, cross-border activity rules, derivatives oversight.
increased · weak
tighter financial regulation
BDDK unwound some of the 2021-23 micromanagement regime.
↓
judicial independence
institutional.judicial_independence
Independence of the judiciary from executive and legislative encroachment. Specifically captures court-packing, selective prosecution, judicial reshuffles.
decreased · strong
weaker judicial independence
Imamoğlu pre-trial detention Mar 2025; Constitutional Court rulings defied by lower courts 2023-2024.

Policies enacted

What the data says — linked outcome hypotheses

The movement's outcome claims are tied to these hypotheses. Verdicts update as models run.

not yet written
central_bank_independence_and_inflation_anchoring

Schools of thought aligned or opposed

partial
chicago_monetarism
Monetary bloc aligned; fiscal and institutional wrappers not.
opposed
classical_liberal
Rule-of-law trajectory post-Mar-2025 decisive.

References

Notes

Phase coherence requires separate coding of monetary (+) vs institutional (-) content.