Thatcher first term: disinflation, MTFS, opening privatisations

Doctrine — stated goals and content

Early-Thatcherite monetarist stabilisation and supply-side loosening, distinct in intensity and content from the second and third terms. Economic school: Friedman-monetarist on macro, Hayekian supply-side and union reform on micro — Keith Joseph / Centre for Policy Studies framing. Left-right axis: right, decisively — break with post-war Butskellite consensus on both fiscal/monetary discipline and labour power. Key content: (i) 1979 "Howe Budget" June 1979 — VAT unified to 15% (up from 8%/12.5%), top income tax rate 83% → 60%, basic rate 33% → 30%; (ii) exchange-control abolition (October 1979); (iii) Medium-Term Financial Strategy (MTFS) announced March 1980 — declining £M3 target path; (iv) Employment Act 1980 (restrictions on secondary picketing, closed shop) and Employment Act 1982 (abolition of statutory trade union immunity for unlawful acts); (v) first privatisations — British Aerospace (February 1981), Cable & Wireless (October 1981), Amersham International (February 1982), Britoil (November 1982), Associated British Ports (February 1983); (vi) Housing Act 1980 — Right to Buy; (vii) 1981 Budget raised taxes into a recession (£4bn fiscal tightening) — 364 economists protested; (viii) Falklands War April-June 1982 transformed political fortunes. Popularity signals: 1979 general election 43.9% vote (14m votes), Conservative Party approval fell to ~23% by December 1981 (lowest for any postwar government), Gallup Thatcher personal rating ~25% in early 1982; post-Falklands surge — Conservatives recovered to >40%; 9 June 1983 general election: Conservatives 42.4% (-1.5pp vote share but Labour collapsed to 27.6% with SDP-Liberal Alliance at 25.4%), seat swing +58 = 144-seat majority. Coherence: macro and micro content aligned around rolling back corporatist post-war settlement; early output and unemployment costs (unemployment 1.3m June 1979 → 3.1m January 1982) were politically survivable because alternative Labour party had split (SDP founding March 1981) and Falklands reset the legitimation frame.