Clinton first term — OBRA 1993, NAFTA, HillaryCare failure, Welfare Reform

Doctrine — stated goals and content

New Democrat / Third Way governance pivoting from traditional Democratic fiscal expansion to centrist neoliberal consensus. Five doctrinal pillars: (a) deficit reduction — Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1993 (signed 10 August 1993, passed the House 218-216 with zero Republican votes) raised the top individual rate 31%→39.6%, added the 2.9% Medicare tax with no cap, expanded the EITC; Rubinomics thesis that bond-market credibility would produce long-rate relief and private investment. (b) Trade liberalisation — NAFTA ratified November 1993 (House 234-200 with majority-Republican + minority-Democrat coalition); WTO Uruguay Round ratified 1994; MFN-for-China renewed. (c) Healthcare over-reach and collapse — Task Force on National Health Care Reform (Hillary Clinton chair) produced the 1,342-page Health Security Act September 1993; abandoned September 1994 without floor vote; triggered the 1994 "Republican Revolution" (Contract with America; GOP +54 House / +8 Senate net). (d) Welfare reform — Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Act (PRWORA, signed 22 August 1996) replaced AFDC with block-grant TANF, imposed 5-year lifetime limit, work requirements; Clinton vetoed first two GOP versions then signed the third. (e) Crime and order — 1994 Assault Weapons Ban and Violent Crime Control Act ($30B crime bill). Stated school: New Democrat / Rubinomics + DLC triangulation. Left-right: centre to centre-left economic with market-liberal trade; centrist on social policy; tough-on-crime. Popularity: November 1992 won 43.0% (Perot 18.9%, Bush 37.4%); Gallup approval trough 37% (June 1993) after gays-in-military; November 1994 midterms GOP took both chambers first time since 1954; rebound after 1995 shutdown; re-elected November 1996 with 49.2% (Dole 40.7%, Perot 8.4%). Coherence: trade old-Democrat fiscal expansion for bond-market credibility and trade openness; trade healthcare universalism for welfare reform and deficit elimination path.