IESET.
Movements·us_reagan_first_term_broad_1981_1985

Reagan first term — supply-side + Volcker disinflation + defence buildup

USA·19811985·Republican (Reagan) + Democratic House / Republican Senate
Leaders: Ronald Reagan (President 1981-1989) · George H.W. Bush (Vice-President) · Donald Regan (Treasury 1981-85) · Martin Feldstein (CEA 1982-84) · Murray Weidenbaum (CEA 1981-82) · David Stockman (OMB 1981-85) · Caspar Weinberger (Defense) · Paul Volcker (Fed Chair, reappointed 1983)
positionschicago_monetarismclassical_liberalaustrianpost_keynesian

Doctrine — stated goals and content

Early-Reaganomics programme fusing four strands: (1) supply-side fiscal — Economic Recovery Tax Act 1981 (ERTA) cut top marginal income tax from 70% to 50%, indexed brackets, and enlarged accelerated depreciation; the Tax Equity and Fiscal Responsibility Act 1982 (TEFRA) partially clawed back corporate provisions when deficits widened; (2) tolerated Volcker disinflation — the Reagan administration shielded Paul Volcker politically through the 1981-82 recession (unemployment 10.8% Nov 1982) as CPI inflation fell from 13.5% (1980) to 3.2% (1983); (3) deregulation and labour discipline — firing of 11,345 striking air-traffic controllers (PATCO, August 1981) shifted the private-sector bargaining posture for a generation; continued trucking / telecoms / financial deregulation inherited from Carter; Garn-St Germain Act 1982 widened thrift powers; (4) defence buildup — real defence outlays rose ~35% 1981-1985 as share of GDP from 5.7% to 6.5%, financing the "second Cold War" posture and the Strategic Defense Initiative (March 1983). Stated school: supply- side + classical-liberal monetary credibility + peace-through-strength. Left-right axis: right-populist-coalitional — combined economic-liberal tax-cutting with socially-conservative Moral Majority coalition mobilisation. Popularity / legitimacy: Reagan won 1980 with 50.7% vs Carter 41.0% (Anderson 6.6%) and 489 EC votes; 1984 re-election 58.8% vs Mondale 40.6% carrying 49 states and 525 EC votes — one of the largest landslides in US history. House Democratic but produced a "Reagan Democrat" cross-over bloc passing ERTA and defence bills. Coherence line: trade near-term Keynesian demand management and 1970s- style incomes-policy for tax-base + monetary-credibility + labour-market- discipline, accepting a sharp 1981-82 recession and structurally widened deficit in exchange for a disinflated, growing 1983-89 economy.

Policy-content fingerprint — how the framework codes this movement on its axes

tax progressivity
fiscal.tax_progressivity
Progressivity of the personal income tax schedule, including top marginal rates, bracket spread, and targeted credits (EITC-equivalents).
decreased · strong
less progressive (flatter rates, compression, smaller credits)
ERTA cut top marginal rate 70%→50%; bracket indexation.
tax corporate
fiscal.tax_corporate
Statutory and effective corporate tax rates, treatment of depreciation, and international competitiveness.
decreased · moderate
lower corporate tax burden
ERTA ACRS accelerated depreciation; TEFRA 1982 partial clawback.
spending level
fiscal.spending_level
General government spending as share of GDP, excluding transfers already captured under fiscal.transfer_expansion to avoid double-counting.
increased · moderate
higher spending share
Defence outlays up ~35% real; entitlements largely unchanged; deficit widened to ~5% GDP.
labour market flexibility
regulatory.labour_market_flexibility
Ease of hiring/firing, collective-bargaining scope, minimum wage rigidity, temporary/permanent contract regulation.
increased · strong
more flexible (easier hiring/firing, less rigid bargaining)
PATCO firings reset private-sector bargaining norms; NLRB tilt.
monetary expansion direction
monetary.monetary_expansion_direction
Direction of monetary-base expansion decisions relative to trend. Separate from fiscal.transfer_expansion even when correlated.
decreased · strong
contractionary (balance sheet shrink, rates above Taylor)
Volcker disinflation politically shielded; Fed funds peak ~19% 1981.
central bank independence
monetary.central_bank_independence
De jure and de facto independence of the central bank from fiscal authority. Per D.1.5 scope, one of the framework's defensible monetary positions.
increased · moderate
greater independence (legal, operational, personnel)
Volcker reappointment 1983 cemented operational independence.
financial deregulation
regulatory.financial_deregulation
Financial-sector regulation — banking separation, capital requirements, cross-border activity rules, derivatives oversight.
decreased · moderate
looser financial regulation
Garn-St Germain 1982 widened thrift powers (looser financial regulation).

Policies enacted

What the data says — linked outcome hypotheses

The movement's outcome claims are tied to these hypotheses. Verdicts update as models run.

not yet written
us_reagan_tax_cuts_growth_effect
not yet written
stagflation_policy_response_effectiveness

Schools of thought aligned or opposed

aligned
chicago_monetarism
Volcker reappointment + supply-side tax architecture.
partial
austrian
Austrians approved disinflation but objected to deficit-financed defence buildup.

References

Notes

Companion to existing us_carter_stagflation_era_1977_1981 and reagan_tax_reforms_1981_1986 (narrow tax-focus movement). This broad first-term movement captures labour, defence, and monetary-disinflation strands not in the narrow tax movement.