Movements · us_trump_tariffs_2018_2019 Trump trade war tariffs USA · 2018 – 2019· Republican (Trump) — over objections of Republican free-trade traditionalists
Leaders: Donald Trump · Robert Lighthizer (USTR) · Peter Navarro (trade advisor)
Doctrine — stated goals and content Section 232 (steel, aluminium), Section 301 (China) tariffs + renegotiated NAFTA → USMCA. Framework D.3.1 calls this out as a canonical case of state-intervention-under-Republican-coalition: should NOT be coded as "market-oriented" because the policy content (trade restriction + industrial policy) is state-interventionist. Right-implemented state intervention is still state intervention per Invariant 3.
Policy-content fingerprint — how the framework codes this movement on its axes ↓
trade openness → regulatory.trade_openness
Trade policy openness — tariffs, non-tariff barriers, FTAs, industrial protection.
decreased · strong
more protectionist
Average US tariff on imports from China rose from ~3% to ~19%.
↑
sectoral licensing → regulatory.sectoral_licensing
Sector-specific licensing regimes, concentration / quota allocation, state-controlled entry (energy, telecoms, healthcare, banking).
increased · moderate
tighter sectoral licensing / more state gating
↑
sectoral subsidy → fiscal.sectoral_subsidy
Targeted industrial and sectoral subsidies (renewable energy, chip manufacturing, agriculture, green hydrogen, etc).
increased · moderate
expanded sectoral subsidies
Tariff revenue offset via farm bailouts to soybean growers hit by retaliation.
Policies enacted · us_section_232_tariffs_2018 · us_section_301_china_tariffs_2018 · us_usmca_2020 What the data says — linked outcome hypotheses The movement's outcome claims are tied to these hypotheses. Verdicts update as models run.
not yet written trade_protection_output_effects
Schools of thought aligned or opposed References USTR Section 301 reports 2018 Amiti-Redding-Weinstein (2019) 'The Impact of the 2018 Trade War' Notes Explicitly cited in D.3.1 as content-over-coalition: Republican = free market is the error this case corrects.
IESET — an empirically-grounded, adversarially-reviewed framework for contemporary economic policy questions. Every hypothesis pre-registered in git before the data is examined.