IESET.
Movements·venezuela_perez_second_term_1989_1993

Pérez AD second term — Gran Viraje, Caracazo, Chávez coups, impeachment

VEN·19891993·Acción Democrática (AD) — end of Pacto de Punto Fijo era
Leaders: Carlos Andrés Pérez (President 1974-1979, 1989-1993 impeached) · Miguel Rodríguez (Cordiplan) · Moisés Naím (Fomento / Industry) · Pedro Tinoco (BCV)
positionschicago_monetarismclassical_liberalinstitutionalism

Doctrine — stated goals and content

AD second-term technocratic reversal — the "Gran Viraje" (The Great Turn) away from state-led rentier populism toward Washington-Consensus liberalisation, catastrophically mistimed against popular expectations. Five doctrinal pillars: (a) Paquete Económico (Package) February 1989 — IMF Letter of Intent; unified exchange rate (Bs 14.5/$→Bs 36/$); fuel-price increase ~100%; deregulation of interest rates and prices; tariff reduction. (b) Caracazo — 27 February 1989 urban-transport fare rise triggered four-day riots in Caracas; military repression; official death toll 276, historians estimate >1,000; the signal rupture of the Punto Fijo consensus. (c) Chávez coup attempts — 4 February 1992 MBR-200 golpe led by Lt. Col. Hugo Chávez; failed; Chávez's televised surrender speech ("por ahora") made him a national figure; 27 November 1992 second coup by Navy/Air Force also failed. (d) Impeachment — Supreme Court authorised trial May 1993 on charges of misusing ~Bs 250M from the Partida Secreta; Congress suspended Pérez 21 May 1993; interim President Ramón Velásquez. (e) Privatisation and liberalisation — CANTV (telecoms) privatised 1991 for $1.9B; VIASA (airline); banking reforms. Stated school: Washington-Consensus + AD-technocratic reformism. Left-right: economic right turn; AD historically centre-left. Popularity: December 1988 Pérez re-elected 52.9% on nostalgia for 1970s oil-boom presidency; approval collapsed post-Caracazo to ~20%; 1992 coup attempts polled broad public sympathy; December 1993 Caldera (Convergencia) won presidency 30.5% — breaking AD/COPEI duopoly. Coherence: trade Punto-Fijo populist continuity for structural reform that failed to survive the distributional backlash.

Policy-content fingerprint — how the framework codes this movement on its axes

trade openness
regulatory.trade_openness
Trade policy openness — tariffs, non-tariff barriers, FTAs, industrial protection.
increased · strong
more open trade
Unilateral tariff reduction; IMF-conditioned liberalisation.
financial deregulation
regulatory.financial_deregulation
Financial-sector regulation — banking separation, capital requirements, cross-border activity rules, derivatives oversight.
increased · moderate
tighter financial regulation
Interest-rate and price deregulation; CANTV privatisation.
sectoral subsidy
fiscal.sectoral_subsidy
Targeted industrial and sectoral subsidies (renewable energy, chip manufacturing, agriculture, green hydrogen, etc).
decreased · strong
reduced sectoral subsidies
Fuel-price subsidy reduction triggered the Caracazo.
rule of law
institutional.rule_of_law
Rule of law as institutional substrate — contract enforcement, judicial independence, equal treatment before the law. Upstream of most other axes.
decreased · strong
weaker rule of law
Caracazo repression, two attempted coups, executive impeachment.
central bank independence
monetary.central_bank_independence
De jure and de facto independence of the central bank from fiscal authority. Per D.1.5 scope, one of the framework's defensible monetary positions.
unchanged · weak
BCV procedural changes; formal autonomy deferred to 1999 constitution.

Policies enacted

What the data says — linked outcome hypotheses

The movement's outcome claims are tied to these hypotheses. Verdicts update as models run.

not yet written
shock_adjustment_political_backlash_effect
not yet written
rentier_state_reform_impossibility

Schools of thought aligned or opposed

opposed
institutionalism
Pacto de Punto Fijo dissolved under the package.

References

Notes

Caracazo-to-Chávez arc originates here; sets up the 1998 Chávez electoral victory.