Size of cash and near-cash transfer programmes (unemployment benefits, means-tested assistance, universal child benefits). Architecturally distinct from forced-saving schemes — see condition welfare_architecture.
General government spending as share of GDP, excluding transfers already captured under fiscal.transfer_expansion to avoid double-counting.
Piñera II-era Covid-19 emergency cash-transfer programme, launched May 2020 (Ley 21.230) and successively expanded in IFE Ampliado (2020), IFE Covid (2021), and IFE Universal (June-November 2021) with progressively broader eligibility and higher per-capita amounts. At peak (July-August 2021) coverage extended to ~80% of Chilean households with per-household transfers up to CLP 100 000+ per capita. Cumulative fiscal cost exceeded USD 22 bn and drove the 2020-2021 Chilean fiscal-deficit spike. Programme wound down November 2021; the Pensión Garantizada Universal (PGU) introduced in 2022 absorbed some of the political demand for the transfer architecture. Together with the 10% AFP withdrawals, a historic near-universal transfer episode in a country previously running a narrow means-tested architecture.
Per invariant 3, reforms are scored by what they did on each channel-separated axis, not by the party that enacted them. This fingerprint is how the policy-match engine finds historical analogues.
Explicit links are curated by the author. Inferred links are hypotheses in the library that test the same axes this policy moved — the framework's answer to "what does the data say about a policy like this?".
Ranked by axis-fingerprint overlap with this policy. Direction match bolded — those are the closest historical analogues. Shape of the match is what drives policy-outcome comparison, not the country or party label.