IESET.
Policies·il_capital_market_liberalisation_1987_1992

Israeli capital-market liberalisation (1987-1992)

ISR·1987 – 1992candidate
movesfinancial deregulation↓central bank independence↑

What the policy did

Following the 1985 Stabilisation Plan and the 1983 bank-shares episode, Israel phased in capital-market reforms: progressive unwinding of the 1983 bank-share nationalisation through share sales; reduction of earmarked credit allocation; liberalisation of foreign-currency deposit rules for residents; and incremental opening of the current account. Bank of Israel under Frenkel from 1991 embedded an inflation-targeting framework.

Policy-content fingerprint — what this policy moved, on which axes

Per invariant 3, reforms are scored by what they did on each channel-separated axis, not by the party that enacted them. This fingerprint is how the policy-match engine finds historical analogues.

intended
↓
financial deregulation
regulatory.financial_deregulation
Financial-sector regulation — banking separation, capital requirements, cross-border activity rules, derivatives oversight.
decreased · moderate
looser financial regulation
Axis semantic '-' = looser regulation: earmarked credit reduced, bank-share state-ownership unwound, FX liberalised.
↑
central bank independence
monetary.central_bank_independence
De jure and de facto independence of the central bank from fiscal authority. Per D.1.5 scope, one of the framework's defensible monetary positions.
increased · moderate
greater independence (legal, operational, personnel)
Frenkel governorship 1991 embedded inflation-targeting framework.

Enacted by

Empirical evidence — linked hypotheses

Explicit links are curated by the author. Inferred links are hypotheses in the library that test the same axes this policy moved — the framework's answer to "what does the data say about a policy like this?".

Major episodes of financial deregulation — the 1999 US Gramm-Leach- Bliley repeal of Glass-Steagall, the 1986 UK Financial Services Act ("Big Bang"), Chile's 1974-1981 banking liberalisation, Sweden's late-1980s credit-market liberalisation, and Japan's 1996-2001 Big Bang — are followed within 10 years by higher-than-baseline incidence of banking crises, measured by the Laeven-Valencia Systemic Banking Crisis Database, and by elevated credit-to-GDP gaps per BIS.
financial_deregulation_crisis_vulnerabilityinferred
viaregulatory.financial_deregulation
SUPPORTED — sign matches claim +, ATT=+0.04145, p=3.34e-07, N=302, treated_countries=8
supported
Liberal democracies experience monotonic positional drift toward larger, more redistributive states across multi-decade horizons.
liberal_democracy_managerial_flywheel_driftinferred
viaregulatory.financial_deregulationmonetary.central_bank_independence
REFUTED — median final drift = -3.00 (13/26 positive, share = 50%). The corpus does not show monotonic statist drift across the liberal-democracy panel.
refuted
Truss 2022 mini-budget shows that unfunded fiscal expansion above the ZLB triggers sharp bond-market and currency responses through expected-inflation and risk-premium channels.
unfunded_fiscal_expansion_above_zlb_bond_market_responseinferred
viamonetary.central_bank_independence
SUPPORTED — GBP/USD trough on 2022-09-26 (1.0703) was 5.02% below the 2022-09-22 pre-announcement close (1.1269); log-decline +0.0515 clears the 3.0% threshold …
supported
UK Truss mini-budget 2022 gilt crisis reflected market confidence and institutional-framework rupture rather than an MMT-predicted hard fiscal limit, because the BoE restored order by intervening as issuer.
uk_truss_mini_budget_currency_sovereign_mechanisminferred
viamonetary.central_bank_independence
partial — Both mechanism legs are directionally consistent but at least one fails the SUPPORTED threshold: FX leg holds (5.02% trough decline); yield leg partia…
partial
Argentina's 2001-2002 crisis — convertibility regime collapse, December 2001 corralito freeze on bank deposits, January 2002 currency-board abandonment, sovereign default, pesification of bank balance sheets, and real-GDP contraction of >= 10% peak-to-trough — is the canonical case of a hard-peg / currency-board collapse compounded by banking-system suspension.
banking_crisis_argentina_2001_corralito_canonicalinferred
viaregulatory.financial_deregulationmonetary.central_bank_independence
SUPPORTED
supported
The 2007-2009 global financial crisis originated in household-debt-financed consumption sustaining aggregate demand despite stagnant real wages, a Minsky-plus-Marx pattern.
gfc_household_debt_wage_stagnation_linkinferred
viaregulatory.financial_deregulation
PARTIAL — coef=-0.01111, p=0; claim direction not auto-inferred
partial
In an OECD panel 2000-2023, increases in OECD Product Market Regulation (PMR) stringency and increases in regulatory uncertainty (proxied by year-to-year changes in the OECD PMR sub-indices) are negatively associated with private non-residential investment as a share of GDP, with effects concentrated in capital-intensive long-duration sectors.
hayek_regulatory_uncertainty_investment_chillinginferred
viaregulatory.financial_deregulation
REFUTED — coef=-3.98 (sign opposite claim +), p=0
refuted
Argentine quarterly real GDP, having contracted in 2024H1 under the Milei stabilisation shock, recovers along a trajectory that by Q4 2025 closes at least 50% of the peak-to-trough output gap observed during the shock's worst quarter, and by Q4 2026 returns to or exceeds the pre-Milei (Q4 2023) real-GDP level.
milei_shock_therapy_output_recovery_trajectoryinferred
viamonetary.central_bank_independenceregulatory.financial_deregulation
partial - Level-recovery legs hold (2025 = +3.0%, 2026 = +6.4%) but ARG cumulative 2024-2026 log-deviation +8.1% does NOT exceed peer mean +14.1% — recovery, bu…
partial

Similar historical policies

Ranked by axis-fingerprint overlap with this policy. Direction match bolded — those are the closest historical analogues. Shape of the match is what drives policy-outcome comparison, not the country or party label.

Tequila crisis and US-IMF rescue 1994-1995
MEX·1994
match
1.5
central bank independencefinancial deregulation
Seychelles exchange-rate liberalisation 2008
SYC·2008
match
1.4
financial deregulationcentral bank independence
Bank of England operational independence
GBR·1997
match
1.4
central bank independencefinancial deregulation
Massa-era stepped devaluations and multi-rate FX regime (2023)
ARG·2023
match
1.3
financial deregulationcentral bank independence
Hawke-Keating reform package (1983-1996)
AUS·1983
match
1.3
central bank independencefinancial deregulation
Hawke-Keating market reforms — Australia 1983-1996
AUS·1983
match
1.3
financial deregulationcentral bank independence
South Korea IMF Standby Arrangement December 1997
KOR·1997
match
1.3
financial deregulationcentral bank independence
Mexican peso devaluation and debt moratorium (1982)
MEX·1982
match
1.2
financial deregulationcentral bank independence