IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·agricultural_productivity_poverty_reduction_panel

Growth in food or crop production per rural worker predicts lower poverty rates and child mortality in low- and middle-income countries.

REFUTEDengine/runs/agricultural_productivity_poverty_reduction_panel

REFUTED — coef=+1.109 (sign opposite claim -), p=0.0102

confidence cueThis test cuts against the claim as written or misses its pre-declared threshold.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The data did not support the prediction. coef=+1.109 (sign opposite claim -), p=0.0102

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 1 country or place units from 1980 to 2024, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Agriculture value added share
What we checked
  • Mortality rate
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/agricultural_productivity_poverty_reduction_panel
1007550250198020022024GLOBAL
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show mortality_rate across 1 sampled countries over 1980–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for agricultural_productivity_poverty_reduction_panel. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/agricultural_productivity_poverty_reduction_panel/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

17 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Austrian Business Cycle Theory (ABCT)wins if MIXEDpartial/no-callChicago School Monetarismwins if MIXEDpartial/no-callClassical Liberalwins if MIXEDpartial/no-callDegrowth / Ecological Macroeconomicswins if MIXEDpartial/no-callDemocratic Socialism (Bernsteinian revisionism + modern)wins if SUPPORTEDschool refutedStructuralist / Developmentalistwins if SUPPORTEDschool refutedEco-Socialism / Red-Greenwins if MIXEDpartial/no-callEmpirical Pragmatist (the framework's house position)wins if SUPPORTEDschool refutedNew Institutional Economicswins if SUPPORTEDschool refutedMarket Socialism (Lange-Lerner tradition)wins if SUPPORTEDschool refutedMarxian Political Economywins if MIXEDpartial/no-callMarxism-Leninism (central-planning implementation)wins if MIXEDpartial/no-callModern Monetary Theorywins if MIXEDpartial/no-callNew Keynesian (mainstream synthesis)wins if SUPPORTEDschool refutedOrdoliberalism (Freiburg School)wins if SUPPORTEDschool refutedPost-Keynesianwins if SUPPORTEDschool refutedSocial Democraticwins if SUPPORTEDschool refuted

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:39Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Growth in food or crop production per rural worker predicts lower poverty rates and child mortality in low- and middle-income countries.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if the primary treatment coefficient has the pre-registered - sign at p<=0.10 with minimum sample gates. REFUTED if the coefficient has the opposite sign at p<=0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL; missing data or failed sample gates are INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_agricultural_productivity_poverty_reduction_panel
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
1 countries · 1980 – 2024
Evidence type
associational

First-pass panel fixed effects screen. Multi-outcome or threshold language from the source backlog should be upgraded to a bespoke replication before scoreboard conversion.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
mortality_rate
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SH.DYN.MORTtier 2
level
agriculture_value_added_share
treatment
world_bank_wdi:NV.AGR.TOTL.ZStier 2
level_lagged_one_year
log_gdp_pc
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
government_effectiveness
control
wgi:GE.ESTtier 4
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — agricultural_productivity_poverty_reduction_panel

Verdict: REFUTED — coef=+1.109 (sign opposite claim -), p=0.0102

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Growth in food or crop production per rural worker predicts lower poverty rates and child mortality in low- and middle-income countries.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if the primary treatment coefficient has the pre-registered - sign at p<=0.10 with minimum sample gates. REFUTED if the coefficient has the opposite sign at p<=0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL; missing data or failed sample gates are INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_agricultural_productivity_poverty_reduction_panel

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): +1.109
  • Std error: 0.4315
  • p-value: 0.0102
  • Observations: 3409, countries: 144
  • Within R²: 0.0899
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:SH.DYN.MORT → mortality_rate (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=11166)
  • world_bank_wdi:NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS → agriculture_value_added_share (treatment, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10968)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_pc (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)
  • wgi:GE.EST → government_effectiveness (controls, publisher=wgi, n=5168)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:39+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Source shard: engine/audits/swarm_2026-05-22_200_hypotheses_worker_D_sectoral_data_rich.md. Backlog source families: WDI agriculture, WDI poverty/mortality, ILOSTAT agriculture employment.. Initial promotion pass left scoreboard mapping empty; mapped by the 2026-05-22 swarm scoreboard conversion v1.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.