IESET.
Hypotheses·fiscal·automatic_stabilizers_recession_depth_recovery_panel

Larger automatic stabilizers reduce peak-to-trough GDP losses and poverty spikes during recessions, but may trade off against recovery speed if labor-market reentry is weak.

REFUTEDengine/runs/automatic_stabilizers_recession_depth_recovery_panel

REFUTED — coef=+0.361 (sign opposite claim -), p=0.000899

confidence cueThis test cuts against the claim as written or misses its pre-declared threshold.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether welfare state size is actually linked to better or worse unemployment rate from 1990 to 2024.

plain answer

The data did not support the prediction. coef=+0.361 (sign opposite claim -), p=0.000899

why it matters

This matters because fiscal claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 1 country or place units from 1990 to 2024, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Welfare state size
What we checked
  • Unemployment rate
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/automatic_stabilizers_recession_depth_recovery_panel
1007550250199020072024OECD
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show unemployment_rate across 1 sampled countries over 1990–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for automatic_stabilizers_recession_depth_recovery_panel. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/automatic_stabilizers_recession_depth_recovery_panel/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

17 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Austrian Business Cycle Theory (ABCT)wins if REFUTEDschool supportedChicago School Monetarismwins if REFUTEDschool supportedClassical Liberalwins if REFUTEDschool supportedDegrowth / Ecological Macroeconomicswins if MIXEDpartial/no-callDemocratic Socialism (Bernsteinian revisionism + modern)wins if SUPPORTEDschool refutedStructuralist / Developmentalistwins if SUPPORTEDschool refutedEco-Socialism / Red-Greenwins if SUPPORTEDschool refutedEmpirical Pragmatist (the framework's house position)wins if MIXEDpartial/no-callNew Institutional Economicswins if SUPPORTEDschool refutedMarket Socialism (Lange-Lerner tradition)wins if SUPPORTEDschool refutedMarxian Political Economywins if SUPPORTEDschool refutedMarxism-Leninism (central-planning implementation)wins if MIXEDpartial/no-callModern Monetary Theorywins if SUPPORTEDschool refutedNew Keynesian (mainstream synthesis)wins if MIXEDpartial/no-callOrdoliberalism (Freiburg School)wins if MIXEDpartial/no-callPost-Keynesianwins if SUPPORTEDschool refutedSocial Democraticwins if SUPPORTEDschool refuted

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:12Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Larger automatic stabilizers reduce peak-to-trough GDP losses and poverty spikes during recessions, but may trade off against recovery speed if labor-market reentry is weak.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if the primary treatment coefficient has the pre-registered - sign at p<=0.10 with minimum sample gates. REFUTED if the coefficient has the opposite sign at p<=0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL; missing data or failed sample gates are INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_automatic_stabilizers_recession_depth_recovery_panel
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
1 countries · 1990 – 2024
Evidence type
associational

Alias-batch panel fixed effects screen. The proxy source is explicitly local and runnable, but exact policy semantics should be upgraded before scoreboard conversion.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
unemployment_rate
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SL.UEM.TOTL.ZStier 2
level
welfare_state_size
treatment
oecd:DSD_SOCXtier 2
level_lagged_one_year
log_gdp_pc
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
government_effectiveness
control
wgi:GE.ESTtier 4
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — automatic_stabilizers_recession_depth_recovery_panel

Verdict: REFUTED — coef=+0.361 (sign opposite claim -), p=0.000899

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Larger automatic stabilizers reduce peak-to-trough GDP losses and poverty spikes during recessions, but may trade off against recovery speed if labor-market reentry is weak.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if the primary treatment coefficient has the pre-registered - sign at p<=0.10 with minimum sample gates. REFUTED if the coefficient has the opposite sign at p<=0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL; missing data or failed sample gates are INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_automatic_stabilizers_recession_depth_recovery_panel

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): +0.361
  • Std error: 0.1083
  • p-value: 0.000899
  • Observations: 787, countries: 32
  • Within R²: 0.442
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS → unemployment_rate (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=6874)
  • oecd:DSD_SOCX@DF_SOCX_AGG → welfare_state_size (treatment, publisher=oecd, n=1559)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_pc (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)
  • wgi:GE.EST → government_effectiveness (controls, publisher=wgi, n=5168)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:12+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Source shard: engine/audits/swarm_2026-05-22_200_hypotheses_worker_B_left_intervention.md. Backlog source families: OECD SOCX, OECD IDD, WDI GDP/unemployment/poverty, Eurostat poverty.. Alias proxy used: oecd:DSD_SOCX@DF_SOCX_AGG -> world_bank_wdi:SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS. Initial promotion pass left scoreboard mapping empty; mapped by the 2026-05-22 swarm scoreboard conversion v1.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.