IESET.
Hypotheses·monetary·bis_household_dsr_policy_rate_consumption_slowdown_panel

Higher household debt-service ratios predict slower real private-consumption growth especially after policy-rate increases.

REFUTEDengine/runs/bis_household_dsr_policy_rate_consumption_slowdown_panel

REFUTED — coef=+188.6 (sign opposite claim -), p=0.0677

confidence cueThis test cuts against the claim as written or misses its pre-declared threshold.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether debt service ratio is actually linked to better or worse real consumption per capita from 1980 to 2024.

plain answer

The data did not support the prediction. coef=+188.6 (sign opposite claim -), p=0.0677

why it matters

This matters because monetary claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 1 country or place units from 1980 to 2024, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Debt service ratio
What we checked
  • Real consumption per capita
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/bis_household_dsr_policy_rate_consumption_slowdown_panel
1007550250198020022024GLOBAL
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show real_consumption_per_capita across 1 sampled countries over 1980–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for bis_household_dsr_policy_rate_consumption_slowdown_panel. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/bis_household_dsr_policy_rate_consumption_slowdown_panel/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

17 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Austrian Business Cycle Theory (ABCT)wins if SUPPORTEDschool refutedChicago School Monetarismwins if SUPPORTEDschool refutedClassical Liberalwins if SUPPORTEDschool refutedDegrowth / Ecological Macroeconomicswins if REFUTEDschool supportedDemocratic Socialism (Bernsteinian revisionism + modern)wins if REFUTEDschool supportedStructuralist / Developmentalistwins if MIXEDpartial/no-callEco-Socialism / Red-Greenwins if REFUTEDschool supportedEmpirical Pragmatist (the framework's house position)wins if MIXEDpartial/no-callNew Institutional Economicswins if MIXEDpartial/no-callMarket Socialism (Lange-Lerner tradition)wins if REFUTEDschool supportedMarxian Political Economywins if REFUTEDschool supportedMarxism-Leninism (central-planning implementation)wins if REFUTEDschool supportedModern Monetary Theorywins if REFUTEDschool supportedNew Keynesian (mainstream synthesis)wins if MIXEDpartial/no-callOrdoliberalism (Freiburg School)wins if SUPPORTEDschool refutedPost-Keynesianwins if REFUTEDschool supportedSocial Democraticwins if REFUTEDschool supported

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:54:09Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Higher household debt-service ratios predict slower real private-consumption growth especially after policy-rate increases.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if the primary treatment coefficient has the pre-registered - sign at p<=0.10 with minimum sample gates. REFUTED if the coefficient has the opposite sign at p<=0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL; missing data or failed sample gates are INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_bis_household_dsr_policy_rate_consumption_slowdown_panel
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
1 countries · 1980 – 2024
Evidence type
associational

First-pass panel fixed effects screen. Multi-outcome or threshold language from the source backlog should be upgraded to a bespoke replication before scoreboard conversion.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
real_consumption_per_capita
outcome
pwt:ccon_poptier 3
annual_growth
debt_service_ratio
treatment
bis:WS_DSRtier 2
level_lagged_one_year
log_gdp_pc
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
government_effectiveness
control
wgi:GE.ESTtier 4
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — bis_household_dsr_policy_rate_consumption_slowdown_panel

Verdict: REFUTED — coef=+188.6 (sign opposite claim -), p=0.0677

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Higher household debt-service ratios predict slower real private-consumption growth especially after policy-rate increases.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if the primary treatment coefficient has the pre-registered - sign at p<=0.10 with minimum sample gates. REFUTED if the coefficient has the opposite sign at p<=0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL; missing data or failed sample gates are INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_bis_household_dsr_policy_rate_consumption_slowdown_panel

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): +188.6
  • Std error: 103
  • p-value: 0.0677
  • Observations: 475, countries: 25
  • Within R²: 0.236
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • pwt:ccon_pop → real_consumption_per_capita (outcome, publisher=pwt, n=10399)
  • bis:WS_DSR → debt_service_ratio (treatment, publisher=bis, n=861)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_pc (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)
  • wgi:GE.EST → government_effectiveness (controls, publisher=wgi, n=5168)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:54:09+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Source shard: engine/audits/swarm_2026-05-22_200_hypotheses_worker_D_sectoral_data_rich.md. Backlog source families: BIS DSR/CBPOL, PWT/WDI consumption.. Initial promotion pass left scoreboard mapping empty; mapped by the 2026-05-22 swarm scoreboard conversion v1.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.