IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·boric_chile_2022_2026_constitutional_rejection_market_continuity

Chile rejected two proposed constitutions during the Boric administration: the 2022 left-leaning convencion text (rejected 62% in September 2022) and the 2023 right-leaning consejo text (rejected 55% in December 2023).

The pre-registered claim is that the net effect of voter rejection of both constitutional alternatives is preservation of the 1980 framework AND continuity of macro-stability indicators (CPI inflation in target band by 2025-2026, fiscal-rule compliance, central-bank-independence intact, peso-USD trajectory not deviating from synthetic counterfactual). The hypothesis isolates the institutional-stability channel: a successful rejection of constitutional change preserved pre-existing market-economy framework and the macro outcomes track that institutional continuity rather than the Boric-administration left-shift signal.

PARTIALengine/runs/boric_chile_2022_2026_constitutional_rejection_market_continuity

PARTIAL — mean_gap=+1.156, |gap|/pre_sd=1.1, p_perm=0.6; claim direction ambiguous

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. mean_gap=+1.156, |gap|/pre_sd=1.1, p_perm=0.6; claim direction ambiguous

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 5 country or place units from 2014 to 2026, using a synth did design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Chile constitutional rejection indicator
  • Post second rejection indicator
What we checked
  • Cpi inflation
  • Real income quarterly
  • Fiscal balance pct income
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/boric_chile_2022_2026_constitutional_rejection_market_continuity
1007550250201420202026CHLCOLBRAPERMEX
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show cpi_inflation across 5 sampled countries over 2014–2026.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for boric_chile_2022_2026_constitutional_rejection_market_continuity. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/boric_chile_2022_2026_constitutional_rejection_market_continuity/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 098ce96 · 2026-04-30T12:57:33Z
run generated · 2026-04-30T10:15:30Z

Chile rejected two proposed constitutions during the Boric administration: the 2022 left-leaning convencion text (rejected 62% in September 2022) and the 2023 right-leaning consejo text (rejected 55% in December 2023). The pre-registered claim is that the net effect of voter rejection of both constitutional alternatives is preservation of the 1980 framework AND continuity of macro-stability indicators (CPI inflation in target band by 2025-2026, fiscal-rule compliance, central-bank-independence intact, peso-USD trajectory not deviating from synthetic counterfactual). The hypothesis isolates the institutional-stability channel: a successful rejection of constitutional change preserved pre-existing market-economy framework and the macro outcomes track that institutional continuity rather than the Boric-administration left-shift signal.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Supported if CHL shows non-negative CATT versus the synthetic counterfactual on at least 3 of 5 outcomes (CPI inflation, real GDP, fiscal balance, REER, EMBI spread) over 2022Q3-2026Q4 with permutation p > 0.20 (i.e., not significantly worse than peers). Refuted if CHL shows negative CATT on at least 3 of 5 at p_perm < 0.10 (i.e., constitutional uncertainty + Boric administration produced macro-deterioration relative to peers). Mixed otherwise. Note the direction-asymmetric thresholds: the hypothesis is one of macro-stability preservation, so "no worse than peers" is the support condition.

formal test & threshold
test:      synth_did_constitutional_continuity_5_outcome_count
threshold: non_negative_CATT_count >= 3 of 5 outcomes at p_perm > 0.20

Method

Template
synth_did
Clustering
country
Sample
5 countries · 2014 – 2026
Evidence type
causal

Primary: synth_did with CHL as treated unit and COL+BRA+PER+MEX as donor pool, matched on pre-2022 macroeconomic profile. Pre-period 2014Q1-2022Q2 defines synthetic; post-period 2022Q3-2026Q4 measures treatment effect. The "treatment" is the rejection of constitutional change, measured against the counterfactual of a successful constitutional transition. Secondary: event-study around the September 2022 and December 2023 plebiscite dates.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
cpi_inflation
outcome
imf:PCPIPCHtier 2
world_bank_wdi:FP.CPI.TOTL.ZGtier 2
yoy_pct
real_gdp_quarterly
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KDtier 2
log_level_quarterly
fiscal_balance_pct_gdp
outcome
imf:GGXCNL_NGDPtier 2
annual_pct_gdp
real_effective_exchange_rate
outcome
bis:WS_EERtier 2
index_level_monthly
sovereign_credit_spread
outcome
jp_morgan_embi:CHLtier 2
basis_points
chile_constitutional_rejection_indicator
treatment
constructed:binary = 1 for CHL from 2022-09-04 onward (post-first-rejection)tier 5
binary
post_second_rejection_indicator
treatment
constructed:binary = 1 for CHL from 2023-12-17 onwardtier 5
binary
commodity_terms_of_trade
control
world_bank_wdi:TT.PRI.MRCH.XD.WDtier 2
log_change
us_policy_rate
control
fred:FEDFUNDStier 1
level
wgi_rule_of_law
control
wgi:GOV_WGI_RL.ESTtier 4
level
vdem_electoral_democracy
control
vdem:v2x_polyarchytier 4
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — boric_chile_2022_2026_constitutional_rejection_market_continuity

Verdict: PARTIAL — mean_gap=+1.156, |gap|/pre_sd=1.1, p_perm=0.6; claim direction ambiguous

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Chile rejected two proposed constitutions during the Boric administration: the 2022 left-leaning convencion text (rejected 62% in September 2022) and the 2023 right-leaning consejo text (rejected 55% in December 2023). The pre-registered claim is that the net effect of voter rejection of both constitutional alternatives is preservation of the 1980 framework AND continuity of macro-stability indicators (CPI inflation in target band by 2025-2026, fiscal-rule compliance, central-bank-independence intact, peso-USD trajectory not deviating from synthetic counterfactual). The hypothesis isolates the institutional-stability channel: a successful rejection of constitutional change preserved pre-existing market-economy framework and the macro outcomes track that institutional continuity rather than the Boric-administration left-shift signal.
  • Falsification rule: Supported if CHL shows non-negative CATT versus the synthetic counterfactual on at least 3 of 5 outcomes (CPI inflation, real GDP, fiscal balance, REER, EMBI spread) over 2022Q3-2026Q4 with permutation p > 0.20 (i.e., not significantly worse than peers). Refuted if CHL shows negative CATT on at least 3 of 5 at p_perm < 0.10 (i.e., constitutional uncertainty + Boric administration produced macro-deterioration relative to peers). Mixed otherwise. Note the direction-asymmetric thresholds: the hypothesis is one of macro-stability preservation, so "no worse than peers" is the support condition.

Synthetic-control estimate

  • shape: synth_did
  • treated_country: CHL
  • event_year: 2022
  • n_donors: 4
  • donor_weights (top): {'BRA': 0.4158, 'PER': 0.3851, 'MEX': 0.199, 'COL': 0.0}
  • pre_rmse: 1.1676389052129272
  • pre_period_sd: 1.0615857411035088
  • mean_post_gap: 1.155784600748743
  • end_period_gap: -0.5024045859915462
  • post_period_years: [2022, 2026]
  • placebo_p_value: 0.6
  • n_placebos: 4
  • method: synthetic-control via NNLS, permutation inference

Variables resolved

  • imf:PCPIPCH; world_bank_wdi:FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG → cpi_inflation (outcome, n=10789)
  • imf:NGDP_R; world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KD → real_gdp_quarterly (outcome, n=10914)
  • imf:GGXCNL_NGDP → fiscal_balance_pct_gdp (outcome, n=8848)
  • bis:WS_EER → real_effective_exchange_rate (outcome, n=2922)
  • wgi:GOV_WGI_RL.EST → wgi_rule_of_law (controls, n=5322)

Generated by scripts/run_synth_did.py at 2026-04-30T10:15:30+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Chile's 2022-2023 double-rejection is unusual: a left-administration-led constitutional process rejected by voters in both directions, leaving the 1980 (Pinochet-era) framework in place. The hypothesis tests whether macro stability tracks the institutional outcome (continuity) rather than the political signal (left-administration). Comparison to Petro (Colombia, where left-administration policies are partially implemented) and Lula 3 (Brazil, where left-administration is implementing industrial policy and tax reform) is the implicit contrast: Chile's voter-blocked left-shift may produce more stable outcomes than the Colombian or Brazilian comparators.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.