IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·chile_market_reform_long_horizon_with_democracy

Chile’s long-run income convergence is stronger after the combination of market reforms (1975–1990) and democratic institutional repair (1990 onward) than under the earlier state-led import-substitution regime (1950–1973).

In a synthetic-control design with Latin American comparators, Chile’s cumulative log GDP-per-capita growth from 1990–2024 exceeds the synthetic counterfactual built from pre-reform peers, and the post-1990 democratic period shows continued convergence relative to a counterfactual that stops at 1990.

PARTIALengine/runs/chile_market_reform_long_horizon_with_democracy

PARTIAL — mean_gap=+5132, |gap|/pre_sd=15, p_perm=0.417 (gap below 0.5×pre_sd or placebo p≥0.10)

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. mean_gap=+5132, |gap|/pre_sd=15, p_perm=0.417 (gap below 0.5×pre_sd or placebo p≥0.10)

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 12 country or place units from 1950 to 2024, using a synthetic control design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Chile post 1990
  • Chile market reform dummy
What we checked
  • Real income pc
  • Labour productivity
  • Productivity index
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

9 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: reproducible hash verified.

Results

engine/runs/chile_market_reform_long_horizon_with_democracy
1007550250195019872024CHLARGBRAMEXURYCOLPER
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show real_gdp_pc across 12 sampled countries over 1950–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for chile_market_reform_long_horizon_with_democracy. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/chile_market_reform_long_horizon_with_democracy/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

9 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Austrian Business Cycle Theory (ABCT)wins if MIXEDpartial/no-callChicago School Monetarismwins if MIXEDpartial/no-callClassical Liberalwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callStructuralist / Developmentalistwins if MIXEDpartial/no-callEmpirical Pragmatist (the framework's house position)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callNew Institutional Economicswins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callNew Keynesian (mainstream synthesis)wins if MIXEDpartial/no-callOrdoliberalism (Freiburg School)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callSocial Democraticwins if MIXEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-05-15T19:29:11Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Chile’s long-run income convergence is stronger after the combination of market reforms (1975–1990) and democratic institutional repair (1990 onward) than under the earlier state-led import-substitution regime (1950–1973). In a synthetic-control design with Latin American comparators, Chile’s cumulative log GDP-per-capita growth from 1990–2024 exceeds the synthetic counterfactual built from pre-reform peers, and the post-1990 democratic period shows continued convergence relative to a counterfactual that stops at 1990.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Refuted if Chile’s cumulative log GDP-pc growth gap versus synthetic counterfactual over 1990-2024 is not positive and significant at p<0.10, or if the panel-FE coefficient on CHL × post-1990 is negative and significant at p<0.05.

formal test & threshold
test:      synthetic_control_chile_convergence
threshold: cumulative_log_gdp_pc_gap_1990_2024 > 0 AND p < 0.10; panel_fe_coef > 0 AND p < 0.10.

Method

Template
synthetic_control
Clustering
country
Sample
12 countries · 1950 – 2024
Evidence type
causal

Primary: synthetic control for CHL treated from 1990, donor pool of Latin American peers. Secondary: panel FE with CHL × post-1990 interaction.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
real_gdp_pc
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
maddison:gdppctier 3
log_level
labour_productivity
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SL.GDP.PCAP.EM.KDtier 2
level
tfp_index
outcome
pwt:rtfpnatier 3
level
trade_openness
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
chile_post_1990
treatment
constructed:1 for CHL from 1990 onwardtier 5
binary
chile_market_reform_dummy
treatment
constructed:1 for CHL from 1975-1990tier 5
binary
initial_gdp_pc_1950
control
maddison:gdppctier 3
level_at_1950
human_capital
control
pwt:hctier 3
level
wgi_rule_of_law
control
wgi:RL.ESTtier 4
level
commodity_terms_of_trade
control
world_bank_wdi:TT.PRI.MRCH.XD.WDtier 2
level
us_policy_rate
control
fred:FEDFUNDStier 1
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — chile_market_reform_long_horizon_with_democracy

Verdict: PARTIAL — mean_gap=+5132, |gap|/pre_sd=15, p_perm=0.417 (gap below 0.5×pre_sd or placebo p≥0.10)

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Chile’s long-run income convergence is stronger after the combination of market reforms (1975–1990) and democratic institutional repair (1990 onward) than under the earlier state-led import-substitution regime (1950–1973). In a synthetic-control design with Latin American comparators, Chile’s cumulative log GDP-per-capita growth from 1990–2024 exceeds the synthetic counterfactual built from pre-reform peers, and the post-1990 democratic period shows continued convergence relative to a counterfactual that stops at 1990.
  • Falsification rule: Refuted if Chile’s cumulative log GDP-pc growth gap versus synthetic counterfactual over 1990-2024 is not positive and significant at p<0.10, or if the panel-FE coefficient on CHL × post-1990 is negative and significant at p<0.05.

Synthetic-control estimate

  • shape: synth_did
  • treated_country: CHL
  • event_year: 1975
  • n_donors: 11
  • donor_weights (top): {'BOL': 0.6797, 'VEN': 0.221, 'URY': 0.0993, 'ARG': 0.0, 'BRA': 0.0}
  • pre_rmse: 1050.6484859623977
  • pre_period_sd: 346.549310783098
  • mean_post_gap: 5131.6334846530335
  • end_period_gap: 10295.420629706734
  • post_period_years: [1975, 2024]
  • placebo_p_value: 0.4166666666666667
  • n_placebos: 11
  • method: synthetic-control via NNLS, permutation inference

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD; maddison:gdppc → real_gdp_pc (outcome, n=14066)
  • world_bank_wdi:SL.GDP.PCAP.EM.KD → labour_productivity (outcome, n=7444)
  • pwt:rtfpna → tfp_index (outcome, n=6407)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (outcome, n=10714)
  • constructed: 1 for CHL from 1990 onward → chile_post_1990 (treatment, n=900)
  • constructed: 1 for CHL from 1975-1990 → chile_market_reform_dummy (treatment, n=900)
  • maddison:gdppc → initial_gdp_pc_1950 (controls, n=19706)
  • pwt:hc → human_capital (controls, n=8637)
  • wgi:RL.EST → wgi_rule_of_law (controls, n=5296)
  • world_bank_wdi:TT.PRI.MRCH.XD.WD → commodity_terms_of_trade (controls, n=6478)
  • fred:FEDFUNDS → us_policy_rate (controls, n=876)

Generated by scripts/run_synth_did.py at 2026-05-15T19:29:11+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

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