IESET.
Hypotheses·monetary·currency_user_vs_issuer_hyperinflation_classification

Every documented modern hyperinflation episode (Cagan ≥50% monthly inflation, Hanke-Krus catalogue) since 1900 falls into one of two categories: (a) the issuing state had material foreign-currency or gold-clause obligations, hard-currency-pegged debt, or external market dependency that left it operating effectively as a currency-user (Weimar reparations, Hungary 1945-46 occupation obligations, Yugoslavia FX debt, Zimbabwe USD obligations 2007+, Venezuela USD oil revenue dependency, Argentina USD debt, Lebanon USD-pegged banking system, Turkey 2021-2024 FX-denominated debt), or (b) the issuing state experienced a documented physical supply collapse independent of the monetary regime (Weimar Ruhr occupation, Hungary post-WW2 occupation/reparation, Zimbabwe land-reform output collapse, Venezuela oil-sector collapse).

No documented hyperinflation has occurred at a sovereign currency-issuer with no material foreign-currency or hard-peg obligations and no contemporaneous supply collapse. The MMT/PK currency-user-vs-issuer distinction is empirically supported as a necessary classification axis for hyperinflation episodes.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/currency_user_vs_issuer_hyperinflation_classification

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether fx denominated public debt pct income is actually linked to better or worse hyperinflation episode classification from 1900 to 2025.

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING

why it matters

This matters because monetary claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 17 country or place units from 1900 to 2025, using a multi metric checklist design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Fx denominated public debt pct income
  • Hard currency peg indicator
What we checked
  • Hyperinflation episode classification
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

0 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: no input vintages recorded.

Results

engine/runs/currency_user_vs_issuer_hyperinflation_classification
1007550250190019632025DEUHUNYUGZWEVENBRAARG
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show hyperinflation_episode_classification across 17 sampled countries over 1900–2025.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for currency_user_vs_issuer_hyperinflation_classification. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/currency_user_vs_issuer_hyperinflation_classification/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-05-04T20:32:38Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Every documented modern hyperinflation episode (Cagan ≥50% monthly inflation, Hanke-Krus catalogue) since 1900 falls into one of two categories: (a) the issuing state had material foreign-currency or gold-clause obligations, hard-currency-pegged debt, or external market dependency that left it operating effectively as a currency-user (Weimar reparations, Hungary 1945-46 occupation obligations, Yugoslavia FX debt, Zimbabwe USD obligations 2007+, Venezuela USD oil revenue dependency, Argentina USD debt, Lebanon USD-pegged banking system, Turkey 2021-2024 FX-denominated debt), or (b) the issuing state experienced a documented physical supply collapse independent of the monetary regime (Weimar Ruhr occupation, Hungary post-WW2 occupation/reparation, Zimbabwe land-reform output collapse, Venezuela oil-sector collapse). No documented hyperinflation has occurred at a sovereign currency-issuer with no material foreign-currency or hard-peg obligations and no contemporaneous supply collapse. The MMT/PK currency-user-vs-issuer distinction is empirically supported as a necessary classification axis for hyperinflation episodes.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

The hypothesis is falsified if any documented hyperinflation episode in the Hanke-Krus catalogue 1900-2025 fails BOTH conditions: (a) absence of material foreign-currency or hard-peg obligations (defined as FX-denominated public+private debt < 20% of GDP AND no formal currency peg/gold-clause active in the 24 months preceding Cagan threshold breach), AND (b) absence of physical supply collapse (defined as real GDP per capita decline < 15% in the four quarters preceding the breach). A single case meeting neither qualifying condition falsifies the classification claim.

formal test & threshold
test:      hyperinflation_classification_currency_user_or_supply_collapse
threshold: 100% of Cagan-threshold episodes since 1900 must satisfy at least one of (FX-obligation present) OR (supply-collapse documented) in the 24-month preceding window

Method

Template
multi_metric_checklist
Clustering
episode
Sample
17 countries · 1900 – 2025
Evidence type
descriptive

Per-episode case-coding pattern check. The hypothesis is descriptive and the test is a coverage rule: every Cagan-threshold episode must satisfy currency-user OR supply-collapse criterion. Episode-level coding rules pre-registered per row of the Hanke-Krus catalogue. Robustness: tighter "currency-user" threshold (10% FX-debt) and looser threshold (30%) reported. Tightness of supply-collapse threshold (10% / 15% / 20%) reported.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
hyperinflation_episode_classification
outcome
constructed:episode-level coding from Hanke-Krus catalogue + IMF/BIS sovereign debt composition + Reinhart-Rogoff currency-regime tatier 5
categorical_currency_user_supply_collapse_both_neither
fx_denominated_public_debt_pct_gdp
treatment
imf:GGXWDG_NGDPtier 2
bis:CRED_total_externaltier 2
world_bank_wdi:DT.DOD.DECT.CDtier 2
pct_gdp
hard_currency_peg_indicator
treatment
ilzetzki_reinhart_rogoff:era_classification_monthly_1940_2019tier 3
binary
real_gdp_decline_preceding_window
treatment
maddison:real_gdp_per_capitatier 3
pwt:rgdpetier 3
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
pct_decline_4q
fiscal_deficit_pct_gdp
treatment
imf:GGXCNL_NGDPtier 2
world_bank_wdi:GC.NLD.TOTL.GD.ZStier 2
pct_gdp
monthly_inflation_peak
control
hanke_tc:hyperinflation_tabletier 3
hanke:hyperinflation_tabletier 3
pct_monthly
currency_regime_classification
control
ilzetzki_reinhart_rogoff:era_classification_monthly_1940_2019tier 3
categorical

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — currency_user_vs_issuer_hyperinflation_classification

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING

Reason: no canonical metrics available to evaluate

Pre-registered rule: SUPPORT if >= 7 of 0 metrics met; REFUTE if <= 3 met (impossible to hit support).

Counts: 0 MET · 0 NOT_MET · 0 PENDING_DATA · 0 PENDING_EVAL

Primary country: DEU

Metric-by-metric

| # | Metric | Status | Observed | Threshold | Notes | |---|---|:---:|---:|---|---|

Claim

Every documented modern hyperinflation episode (Cagan ≥50% monthly inflation, Hanke-Krus catalogue) since 1900 falls into one of two categories: (a) the issuing state had material foreign-currency or gold-clause obligations, hard-currency-pegged debt, or external market dependency that left it operating effectively as a currency-user (Weimar reparations, Hungary 1945-46 occupation obligations, Yugoslavia FX debt, Zimbabwe USD obligations 2007+, Venezuela USD oil revenue dependency, Argentina USD debt, Lebanon USD-pegged banking system, Turkey 2021-2024 FX-denominated debt), or (b) the issuing state experienced a documented physical supply collapse independent of the monetary regime (Weimar Ruhr occupation, Hungary post-WW2 occupation/reparation, Zimbabwe land-reform output collapse, Venezuela oil-sector collapse). No documented hyperinflation has occurred at a sovereign currency-issuer with no material foreign-currency or hard-peg obligations and no contemporaneous supply collapse. The MMT/PK currency-user-vs-issuer distinction is empirically supported as a necessary classification axis for hyperinflation episodes.

Interpretation

Verdict is INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — 0 metric(s) cannot be evaluated because the underlying data source is not yet in the vintages pipeline, and 0 metric(s) have data but a threshold expression the auto-evaluator does not recognise (complex conditions, discrete event counts, cross-country gaps). Close these gaps then re-run.

Steelman live concerns

See hypotheses/steelman/currency_user_vs_issuer_hyperinflation_classification.md for the strongest opposing arguments. Canonical-case multi-metric evidence is a pattern match, not a causal identification — the result card should be read as 'outcome trajectory matches the predicted pattern to degree X' rather than 'policy P caused the outcome'.

Provenance

Vintages pinned in manifest.yaml. Full per-metric diagnostics in diagnostics.json. Machine-readable results in metric_results.parquet.

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

This hypothesis sits alongside hyperinflation_requires_fiscal_dominance rather than against it: the fiscal-dominance condition is necessary, but the MMT/PK addendum is that the operative mechanism in every documented case is either FX-denominated obligation (rendering the state a currency-user) or supply collapse, not monetary expansion at a clean sovereign currency-issuer. Re-classifies the hyperinflation register on its own terms.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.