IESET.
Hypotheses·welfare architecture·degrowth_recession_basic_needs_protection_panel

Output or energy-use contractions do not have to reduce basic-needs outcomes when health, education, and food-security institutions are protected; refuted if contractions reliably worsen mortality, schooling, or poverty even under high public provision.

PARTIALengine/runs/degrowth_recession_basic_needs_protection_panel

PARTIAL — coef=-2.29, p=0.308 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether institutional quality proxy is actually linked to better or worse mortality rate from 1980 to 2024.

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. coef=-2.29, p=0.308 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

why it matters

This matters because welfare architecture claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 1 country or place units from 1980 to 2024, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Institutional quality proxy
What we checked
  • Mortality rate
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/degrowth_recession_basic_needs_protection_panel
1007550250198020022024GLOBAL
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show mortality_rate across 1 sampled countries over 1980–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for degrowth_recession_basic_needs_protection_panel. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/degrowth_recession_basic_needs_protection_panel/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

17 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Austrian Business Cycle Theory (ABCT)wins if REFUTEDpartial/no-callChicago School Monetarismwins if REFUTEDpartial/no-callClassical Liberalwins if REFUTEDpartial/no-callDegrowth / Ecological Macroeconomicswins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callDemocratic Socialism (Bernsteinian revisionism + modern)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callStructuralist / Developmentalistwins if MIXEDpartial/no-callEco-Socialism / Red-Greenwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callEmpirical Pragmatist (the framework's house position)wins if MIXEDpartial/no-callNew Institutional Economicswins if MIXEDpartial/no-callMarket Socialism (Lange-Lerner tradition)wins if MIXEDpartial/no-callMarxian Political Economywins if MIXEDpartial/no-callMarxism-Leninism (central-planning implementation)wins if MIXEDpartial/no-callModern Monetary Theorywins if MIXEDpartial/no-callNew Keynesian (mainstream synthesis)wins if MIXEDpartial/no-callOrdoliberalism (Freiburg School)wins if MIXEDpartial/no-callPost-Keynesianwins if MIXEDpartial/no-callSocial Democraticwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:54:46Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Output or energy-use contractions do not have to reduce basic-needs outcomes when health, education, and food-security institutions are protected; refuted if contractions reliably worsen mortality, schooling, or poverty even under high public provision.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if the primary treatment coefficient has the pre-registered - sign at p<=0.10 with minimum sample gates. REFUTED if the coefficient has the opposite sign at p<=0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL; missing data or failed sample gates are INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_degrowth_recession_basic_needs_protection_panel
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
1 countries · 1980 – 2024
Evidence type
associational

First-pass panel fixed effects screen. Multi-outcome or threshold language from the source backlog should be upgraded to a bespoke replication before scoreboard conversion.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
mortality_rate
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SH.DYN.MORTtier 2
level
institutional_quality_proxy
treatment
wgi:GE.ESTtier 4
level_lagged_one_year
log_gdp_pc
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
government_effectiveness
control
wgi:GE.ESTtier 4
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — degrowth_recession_basic_needs_protection_panel

Verdict: PARTIAL — coef=-2.29, p=0.308 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Output or energy-use contractions do not have to reduce basic-needs outcomes when health, education, and food-security institutions are protected; refuted if contractions reliably worsen mortality, schooling, or poverty even under high public provision.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if the primary treatment coefficient has the pre-registered - sign at p<=0.10 with minimum sample gates. REFUTED if the coefficient has the opposite sign at p<=0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL; missing data or failed sample gates are INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_degrowth_recession_basic_needs_protection_panel

Estimate

  • Method: statsmodels OLS FE fallback (linearmodels failed: exog does not have full column rank. If you wish to proceed with model estimation irrespective of the numerical accuracy of coefficient estimates, you can set check_rank=False.)
  • Coefficient (treatment): -2.29
  • Std error: 2.245
  • p-value: 0.308
  • Observations: 3486, countries: 146
  • Within R²: 0.889
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:SH.DYN.MORT → mortality_rate (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=11166)
  • wgi:GE.EST → institutional_quality_proxy (treatment, publisher=wgi, n=5168)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_pc (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)
  • wgi:GE.EST → government_effectiveness (controls, publisher=wgi, n=5168)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:54:46+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Source shard: engine/audits/swarm_2026-05-22_200_hypotheses_worker_B_left_intervention.md. Backlog source families: WDI GDP/energy/social indicators, OWID health, FAOSTAT/WDI food production, UCDP conflict.. Initial promotion pass left scoreboard mapping empty; mapped by the 2026-05-22 swarm scoreboard conversion v1.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.