IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·developmental_state_to_market_transition_success

The strongest long-run economic performers among countries that achieved middle-income status are those that used developmentalist tools (state-directed credit, sectoral targeting, export subsidies, infrastructure investment) for catch-up growth, then transitioned toward market competition, fiscal discipline, and rule-bound institutions before reaching frontier convergence.

Countries that maintained state-direction into the high-income frontier stall in productivity growth and TFP convergence. The claim applies to a panel of catch-up economies 1960-2020.

REFUTEDengine/runs/developmental_state_to_market_transition_success

REFUTED — coef=-2.412e-08 (sign opposite claim +), p=0.000414

confidence cueThis test cuts against the claim as written or misses its pre-declared threshold.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The data did not support the prediction. coef=-2.412e-08 (sign opposite claim +), p=0.000414

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 27 country or place units from 1960 to 2020, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Developmental state phase
  • Market transition phase
What we checked
  • Productivity growth
  • Income per capita convergence gap
  • Manufacturing productivity growth
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/developmental_state_to_market_transition_success
1007550250196019902020KORTWNJPNSGPCHNVNMMYS
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show tfp_growth across 27 sampled countries over 1960–2020.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for developmental_state_to_market_transition_success. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/developmental_state_to_market_transition_success/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

3 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Classical Liberalwins if SUPPORTEDschool refutedStructuralist / Developmentalistwins if MIXEDpartial/no-callEmpirical Pragmatist (the framework's house position)wins if SUPPORTEDschool refuted

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 5ce4495 · 2026-05-02T19:11:20Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:47Z

The strongest long-run economic performers among countries that achieved middle-income status are those that used developmentalist tools (state-directed credit, sectoral targeting, export subsidies, infrastructure investment) for catch-up growth, then transitioned toward market competition, fiscal discipline, and rule-bound institutions before reaching frontier convergence. Countries that maintained state-direction into the high-income frontier stall in productivity growth and TFP convergence. The claim applies to a panel of catch-up economies 1960-2020.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

The hypothesis is falsified if countries that maintained developmental-state policies into the high-income phase show TFP growth indistinguishable from or superior to transitioners in a panel with country and year fixed effects, or if the transition indicator is negatively and significantly associated with TFP growth.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_developmental_state_transition_1960_2020
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
27 countries · 1960 – 2020
Evidence type
associational

Data

VariableSourceTransform
tfp_growth
outcome
pwt:rtfpnatier 3
log_diff_5y
gdp_per_capita_convergence_gap
outcome
pwt:rgdpetier 3
constructed_gap_to_usa
manufacturing_tfp_growth
outcome
oecd_stan:manufacturing_tfptier 5
log_diff_5y
developmental_state_phase
treatment
constructed:state_directed_credit_plus_sectoral_targeting_indicatortier 5
indicator
market_transition_phase
treatment
constructed:efw_improvement_plus_fiscal_discipline_indicatortier 5
indicator
frontier_proximity
treatment
pwt:rgdpetier 3
ratio_to_usa
log_gdp_per_capita
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
human_capital_index
control
pwt:hctier 3
level
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
institutional_quality
control
wgi:GE.ESTtier 4
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — developmental_state_to_market_transition_success

Verdict: REFUTED — coef=-2.412e-08 (sign opposite claim +), p=0.000414

Pre-registration

  • Claim: The strongest long-run economic performers among countries that achieved middle-income status are those that used developmentalist tools (state-directed credit, sectoral targeting, export subsidies, infrastructure investment) for catch-up growth, then transitioned toward market competition, fiscal discipline, and rule-bound institutions before reaching frontier convergence. Countries that maintained state-direction into the high-income frontier stall in productivity growth and TFP convergence. The claim applies to a panel of catch-up economies 1960-2020.
  • Falsification rule: The hypothesis is falsified if countries that maintained developmental-state policies into the high-income phase show TFP growth indistinguishable from or superior to transitioners in a panel with country and year fixed effects, or if the transition indicator is negatively and significantly associated with TFP growth.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_developmental_state_transition_1960_2020

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): -2.412e-08
  • Std error: 6.778e-09
  • p-value: 0.000414
  • Observations: 483, countries: 23
  • Within R²: 0.388
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • pwt:rtfpna → tfp_growth (outcome, publisher=pwt, n=6407)
  • pwt:rgdpe → gdp_per_capita_convergence_gap (outcome, publisher=pwt, n=10399)
  • pwt:rgdpe → frontier_proximity (treatment, publisher=pwt, n=10399)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_per_capita (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • pwt:hc → human_capital_index (controls, publisher=pwt, n=8637)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)
  • wgi:GE.EST → institutional_quality (controls, publisher=wgi, n=5168)

Variables missing data

  • oecd_stan:manufacturing_tfp (outcome, name=manufacturing_tfp_growth) — vintage not on disk
  • constructed:state_directed_credit_plus_sectoral_targeting_indicator (treatment, name=developmental_state_phase) — vintage not on disk
  • constructed:efw_improvement_plus_fiscal_discipline_indicator (treatment, name=market_transition_phase) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:47+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.