IESET.
Hypotheses·energy·energiewende_avoided_emissions_value_outweighs_industrial_cost

Germany's 2010-2024 Energiewende-driven reduction in territorial CO2 emissions, valued at a central social-cost-of-carbon (SCC) of USD 185/tCO2 (Rennert et al.

2022), produces an avoided-damage flow whose cumulative present value exceeds the cumulative industrial- electricity-cost differential between Germany and a peer basket (FRA, USA, SWE, NLD, BEL, ITA, ESP) over the same window. The joint ledger reverses the headline industrial-cost narrative once carbon damages are internalised at standard SCC values.

PARTIALengine/runs/energiewende_avoided_emissions_value_outweighs_industrial_cost

PARTIAL — shape=panel_summary, |Δ_log|=0.119, ratio=1.13; claim direction ambiguous

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether post 2010 energiewende window is actually linked to better or worse cumulative avoided co2 mt vs 2010 baseline from 2010 to 2024.

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. shape=panel_summary, |Δ_log|=0.119, ratio=1.13; claim direction ambiguous

why it matters

This matters because energy claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 8 country or place units from 2010 to 2024, using a descriptive design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Post 2010 energiewende window
What we checked
  • Cumulative avoided co2 mt vs 2010 baseline
  • Cumulative avoided damage value usd bn
  • Cumulative industrial electricity cost premium usd bn
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/energiewende_avoided_emissions_value_outweighs_industrial_cost
1007550250201020172024DEUFRAUSASWENLDBELITA
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show cumulative_avoided_co2_mt_vs_2010_baseline across 8 sampled countries over 2010–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for energiewende_avoided_emissions_value_outweighs_industrial_cost. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/energiewende_avoided_emissions_value_outweighs_industrial_cost/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-04-30T10:51:08Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Germany's 2010-2024 Energiewende-driven reduction in territorial CO2 emissions, valued at a central social-cost-of-carbon (SCC) of USD 185/tCO2 (Rennert et al. 2022), produces an avoided-damage flow whose cumulative present value exceeds the cumulative industrial- electricity-cost differential between Germany and a peer basket (FRA, USA, SWE, NLD, BEL, ITA, ESP) over the same window. The joint ledger reverses the headline industrial-cost narrative once carbon damages are internalised at standard SCC values.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED iff cumulative_net_ledger_usd_bn > 0 over 2010-2024 at SCC central (USD 185/tCO2) AND remains positive at SCC = 51 USD/tCO2 (the conservative US IWG 2016 figure). REFUTED if the net ledger is negative at SCC central. PARTIAL if positive at central SCC but flips negative at SCC = 51. METHOD_VALID requires EEA inventory + Eurostat industrial price + Eurostat industrial consumption all on disk for DEU + at least 5 peer-basket countries 2010-2024; if industrial price series missing for >2 peers, downgrade to inconclusive.

formal test & threshold
test:      energiewende_joint_ledger_avoided_damage_vs_industrial_premium
threshold: PRIMARY: cumulative_net_ledger_usd_bn (2010-2024, central SCC) > 0 AND cumulative_net_ledger_usd_bn (2010-2024, low SCC = 51 USD/tCO2) > 0

Method

Template
descriptive
Clustering
none
Sample
8 countries · 2010 – 2024
Evidence type
descriptive

Joint-ledger accounting comparison. Two flows are computed in constant 2020 USD: (i) cumulative avoided-CO2 damage value = cumulative avoided emissions vs 2010 baseline x SCC central, sensitivity at SCC = 51 USD/tCO2 (US IWG 2016 central) and SCC = 380 USD/tCO2 (Rennert high). (ii) cumulative industrial- electricity-cost premium = DEU minus peer-basket mean industrial price x DEU industrial consumption, summed annually. Net ledger is (i) - (ii). Pre-trend baseline window 2005-2010 reported for sensitivity. Not a causal identification of Energiewende — it is a what-does-the-monetised-ledger-say accounting frame that counterposes the existing industrial-cost spec on the same treatment.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
cumulative_avoided_co2_mt_vs_2010_baseline
outcome
eea:greenhouse_gas_inventorytier 2
cumulative_delta_vs_baseline
cumulative_avoided_damage_value_usd_bn
outcome
derived: avoided_co2_mt * SCC(185 USD/tCO2, 2020 USD); SCC central from Rennert et al. 2022 Nature.present_value_2020_usd
cumulative_industrial_electricity_cost_premium_usd_bn
outcome
eurostat:nrg_pc_205tier 1
iea:industrial_electricity_pricetier 2
deu_minus_peer_mean_x_industrial_electricity_consumption
net_ledger_usd_bn
outcome
derived: cumulative_avoided_damage_value_usd_bn - cumulative_industrial_electricity_cost_premium_usd_bnlevel
post_2010_energiewende_window
treatment
constructed:indicator = 1 for DEU 2010 onwardstier 5
indicator
log_real_gdp_pc
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
industrial_electricity_consumption_twh
control
world_bank_wdi:EG.ELC.RNEW.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — energiewende_avoided_emissions_value_outweighs_industrial_cost

Verdict: PARTIAL — shape=panel_summary, |Δ_log|=0.119, ratio=1.13; claim direction ambiguous

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Germany's 2010-2024 Energiewende-driven reduction in territorial CO2 emissions, valued at a central social-cost-of-carbon (SCC) of USD 185/tCO2 (Rennert et al. 2022), produces an avoided-damage flow whose cumulative present value exceeds the cumulative industrial- electricity-cost differential between Germany and a peer basket (FRA, USA, SWE, NLD, BEL, ITA, ESP) over the same window. The joint ledger reverses the headline industrial-cost narrative once carbon damages are internalised at standard SCC values.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED iff cumulative_net_ledger_usd_bn > 0 over 2010-2024 at SCC central (USD 185/tCO2) AND remains positive at SCC = 51 USD/tCO2 (the conservative US IWG 2016 figure). REFUTED if the net ledger is negative at SCC central. PARTIAL if positive at central SCC but flips negative at SCC = 51. METHOD_VALID requires EEA inventory + Eurostat industrial price + Eurostat industrial consumption all on disk for DEU + at least 5 peer-basket countries 2010-2024; if industrial price series missing for >2 peers, downgrade to inconclusive.
  • Falsification test: energiewende_joint_ledger_avoided_damage_vs_industrial_premium

Comparison

  • shape: panel_summary
  • treatment_country: DEU
  • treatment_value: 0.17405438093542258
  • donor_pool_median: 0.1545101173941799
  • ratio: 1.1264918043611483
  • log_diff: 0.11910820555180002
  • n_donor_countries: 6
  • end_year_window: [2019, 2024]

Variables resolved

  • eurostat:nrg_pc_205; iea:industrial_electricity_price → cumulative_industrial_electricity_cost_premium_usd_bn (outcome, publisher=eurostat, n=725)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_real_gdp_pc (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=14066)

Variables missing data

  • eea:greenhouse_gas_inventory (outcome, name=cumulative_avoided_co2_mt_vs_2010_baseline)
  • derived: avoided_co2_mt * SCC(185 USD/tCO2, 2020 USD); SCC central from Rennert et al. 2022 Nature. (outcome, name=cumulative_avoided_damage_value_usd_bn)
  • derived: cumulative_avoided_damage_value_usd_bn - cumulative_industrial_electricity_cost_premium_usd_bn (outcome, name=net_ledger_usd_bn)
  • constructed: indicator = 1 for DEU 2010 onwards (treatment, name=post_2010_energiewende_window)
  • eurostat:nrg_bal_c (controls, name=industrial_electricity_consumption_twh)

Generated by scripts/run_descriptive.py at 2026-04-30T10:51:08+00:00

Notes

Counter-spec to german_energiewende_industrial_cost_trajectory. That hypothesis pre-registers the industrial-cost penalty side of the ledger; this one pre-registers the avoided-damage side and the net. Run-time data check: EEA inventory and Eurostat industrial electricity price are on disk for DEU + most peers; SCC values are hard-coded constants per the cited sources. Industrial electricity consumption (world_bank_wdi:EG.ELC.RNEW.ZS) needs a confirmation pull.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.