IESET.
Hypotheses·trade·export_openness_agricultural_diversification

Agricultural export liberalisation predicts faster diversification into higher-value crops than import-substitution agricultural policy.

PARTIALengine/runs/export_openness_agricultural_diversification

PARTIAL — coef=-2.498, p=0.691 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

When countries open more of the economy to trade and competition, do people end up with better long-run income or productivity outcomes?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. coef=-2.498, p=0.691 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

why it matters

This matters because trade claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 30 country or place units from 1970 to 2023, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Policy or institution proxy
What we checked
  • Primary sectoral outcome
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/export_openness_agricultural_diversification
1007550250197019972023USAGBRCANAUSNZLDEUFRA
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show primary_sectoral_outcome across 30 sampled countries over 1970–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for export_openness_agricultural_diversification. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/export_openness_agricultural_diversification/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

3 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Classical Liberalwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callStructuralist / Developmentalistwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callEmpirical Pragmatist (the framework's house position)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 4467b9f · 2026-05-02T22:38:16Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:54:38Z

Agricultural export liberalisation predicts faster diversification into higher-value crops than import-substitution agricultural policy.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if the treatment coefficient has the predicted sign at p<0.10. REFUTED if the opposite sign is significant at p<0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_export_openness_agricultural_diversification
threshold: p<0.10 with pre-registered sign

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
30 countries · 1970 – 2023
Evidence type
associational

Proxy-first staggered reform panel. Rule-of-law is excluded from the primary model because WGI begins after the 1975/1984/1988 reform onsets and mechanically deletes identifying pre-reform years; report it only as a post-1996 robustness/descriptive check. Upgrade to bespoke replication when exact sector datasets are fetched.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
primary_sectoral_outcome
outcome
world_bank_wdi:TX.VAL.AGRI.ZS.UNtier 2
level_or_growth_proxy
policy_or_institution_proxy
treatment
constructed:CHL years >= 1975; NZL years >= 1984; VNM years >= 1988tier 5
indicator_or_level
log_gdp_pc
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — export_openness_agricultural_diversification

Verdict: PARTIAL — coef=-2.498, p=0.691 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Agricultural export liberalisation predicts faster diversification into higher-value crops than import-substitution agricultural policy.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if the treatment coefficient has the predicted sign at p<0.10. REFUTED if the opposite sign is significant at p<0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_export_openness_agricultural_diversification

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): -2.498
  • Std error: 6.286
  • p-value: 0.691
  • Observations: 1155, countries: 23
  • Within R²: 0.181
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:TX.VAL.AGRI.ZS.UN → primary_sectoral_outcome (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=8393)
  • constructed: CHL years >= 1975; NZL years >= 1984; VNM years >= 1988 → policy_or_institution_proxy (treatment, publisher=constructed, n=1620)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_pc (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:54:38+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.