IESET.
Hypotheses·trade·export_promotion_without_protection

Export promotion combined with domestic competition policy outperforms export promotion combined with domestic protection (entry barriers, state aid to incumbents, preferential procurement) in raising real export growth and manufacturing TFP, in a broad-country panel 1990-2020.

The directional claim is that the interaction between export-promotion intensity and competition-policy stringency is positive for export growth and TFP, while the interaction between export promotion and protection intensity is insignificant or negative.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/export_promotion_without_protection

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — insufficient observations after listwise deletion (22)

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

When countries open more of the economy to trade and competition, do people end up with better long-run income or productivity outcomes?

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. insufficient observations after listwise deletion (22)

why it matters

This matters because trade claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 37 country or place units from 1990 to 2020, using a panel fe decomposition design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Export promotion intensity
  • Domestic protection index
What we checked
  • Real export growth
  • Manufacturing productivity growth
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/export_promotion_without_protection
1007550250199020052020ARGBGDBGRBRACHLCHNCOL
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show real_export_growth across 37 sampled countries over 1990–2020.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for export_promotion_without_protection. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/export_promotion_without_protection/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 5ce4495 · 2026-05-02T19:11:20Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:54:38Z

Export promotion combined with domestic competition policy outperforms export promotion combined with domestic protection (entry barriers, state aid to incumbents, preferential procurement) in raising real export growth and manufacturing TFP, in a broad-country panel 1990-2020. The directional claim is that the interaction between export-promotion intensity and competition-policy stringency is positive for export growth and TFP, while the interaction between export promotion and protection intensity is insignificant or negative.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if β1 (export promotion × competition) is positive and significant at p<0.10 while β2 (export promotion × protection) is insignificant or negative. PARTIAL if both are positive but β1 > β2. REFUTED if β2 is positive and significantly larger than β1, or if both are insignificant. INFORMATIVE: excluding China and Korea should not eliminate β1; if it does, the result is driven by two East Asian developmental states.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_export_promotion_competition_vs_protection_interaction
threshold: β_export_x_competition > 0 at p<=0.10  AND β_export_x_protection p >= 0.10 or coefficient <= 0  AND Ex-China-Korea robustness retains sign of β_export_x_competition.

Method

Template
panel_fe_decomposition
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
37 countries · 1990 – 2020
Evidence type
associational

Two-way FE panel with two interaction terms: outcome = β0 + β1*export promotion × competition + β2*export promotion × protection + β3*export promotion + β4*competition + β5*protection + controls + FE. The comparison of interest is β1 versus β2. Mechanism decomposition via export diversification and manufacturing TFP channels. Robustness: (1) exclude China and Korea (dominant export-promotion cases); (2) use 5-year non-overlapping averages; (3) IV for export promotion using shift-share based on world demand growth by sector.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
real_export_growth
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NE.EXP.GNFS.KD.ZGtier 2
annual_log_change
manufacturing_tfp_growth
outcome
constructed:UNIDO INDSTAT or OECD STAN sectoral TFPtier 5
annual_log_change
export_promotion_intensity
treatment
constructed:export promotion agency budget / GDP + export financing / GDP + number of trade missions (ITC / World Bank TPR)tier 5
z_score_composite
domestic_protection_index
treatment
oecd_pmr:barriers_to_trade_and_investmenttier 4
level
domestic_competition_index
treatment
oecd_pmr:overall_pmrtier 4
inverted_scale
initial_log_gdp_per_capita
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
real_effective_exchange_rate
control
imf:reertier 2
log_change
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
human_capital_index
control
pwt:hctier 3
level
infrastructure_quality
control
wgi:GE.ESTtier 4
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — export_promotion_without_protection

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — insufficient observations after listwise deletion (22)

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Export promotion combined with domestic competition policy outperforms export promotion combined with domestic protection (entry barriers, state aid to incumbents, preferential procurement) in raising real export growth and manufacturing TFP, in a broad-country panel 1990-2020. The directional claim is that the interaction between export-promotion intensity and competition-policy stringency is positive for export growth and TFP, while the interaction between export promotion and protection intensity is insignificant or negative.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if β1 (export promotion × competition) is positive and significant at p<0.10 while β2 (export promotion × protection) is insignificant or negative. PARTIAL if both are positive but β1 > β2. REFUTED if β2 is positive and significantly larger than β1, or if both are insignificant. INFORMATIVE: excluding China and Korea should not eliminate β1; if it does, the result is driven by two East Asian developmental states.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_export_promotion_competition_vs_protection_interaction

Estimate

  • Error: insufficient observations after listwise deletion (22)

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NE.EXP.GNFS.KD.ZG → real_export_growth (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=8722)
  • oecd_pmr:overall_pmr → domestic_competition_index (treatment, publisher=oecd_pmr, n=105)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → initial_log_gdp_per_capita (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)
  • pwt:hc → human_capital_index (controls, publisher=pwt, n=8637)
  • wgi:GE.EST → infrastructure_quality (controls, publisher=wgi, n=5168)

Variables missing data

  • constructed: UNIDO INDSTAT or OECD STAN sectoral TFP (outcome, name=manufacturing_tfp_growth) — vintage not on disk
  • constructed: export promotion agency budget / GDP + export financing / GDP + number of trade missions (ITC / World Bank TPR) (treatment, name=export_promotion_intensity) — vintage not on disk
  • oecd_pmr:barriers_to_trade_and_investment (treatment, name=domestic_protection_index) — vintage not on disk
  • imf_weo:reer (controls, name=real_effective_exchange_rate) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:54:38+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Data readiness: - ITC Trade Facilitation / export promotion indicators (pending) - OECD PMR barriers to trade and investment, overall PMR (ready for subset) - WDI real export growth, trade openness, GDP pc (ready) - IMF WEO REER (ready) - PWT hc, WGI GE.EST (ready) - UNIDO INDSTAT / OECD STAN manufacturing TFP (pending)

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.